The last round of the 2026 NRL regular season is here and while the top eight is locked in, the final positions can still change with the minor premiership to be decided on Sunday afternoon.
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Here, foxsports.com.au has you covered with the rundown on how high or low every team can finish on the ladder.
1. WARRIORS (40 points, +309)
Best-case finish: 1st
Worst-case finish: 2nd
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H)
Analysis: The Warriors can finish no lower than second, likely needing to win and win well given the Panthers have named a strong side to play the Tigers. Andrew Webster’s side currently sit just one point ahead of Penrith in for-and-against.
2. PENRITH PANTHERS (40, +308)
Best-case finish: 1st
Worst-case finish: 2nd
Remaining games: Tigers (H)
Analysis: The Panthers will know exactly what they need to do to secure the minor premiership given they play in the final game of the regular season, with the smallest of differences in for-and-against only separating Penrith and the Warriors.
3. DOLPHINS (40 points, +156)
Best-case finish: 3rd
Worst-case finish: 4th
Remaining games: Win vs Titans (A)
Analysis: Like the Panthers and Warriors, it is just points differential that stands between the Dolphins and Roosters. The Dolphins claimed a 24-20 win over the Titans, which now means that the Roosters need to win by at least nine points to overtake Kristian Woolf’s side.
4. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (38 points, +148)
Best-case finish: 3rd
Worst-case finish: 4th
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A)
Analysis: The equation is simple for the Roosters. Win by nine points to guarantee third place, otherwise they will settle for fourth and will then have to wait until Sunday to see if they are travelling to New Zealand or facing the premiership favourites Penrith.
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5. CRONULLA SHARKS (34 points, +153)
Best-case finish: 5th
Worst-case finish: 6th
Remaining games: Storm (H)
Analysis: The Sharks are virtually locked into fifth position unless there is an absolute disaster in the final round of the season. Cronulla’s for-and-against is vastly better than South Sydney’s, although the Rabbitohs could run up a score against the undermanned Roosters. If they did that, the Sharks would then also need to be smashed by the Storm to drop to sixth. Either way, it is not a huge difference since the Sharks are locked into a home final.
6. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (32 points, +83)
Best-case finish: 5th
Worst-case finish: 8th
Remaining games: Roosters (H)
Analysis: The Rabbitohs can slip the furthest out of any team in the top eight this week. If they lose to the understrength Roosters, they will drop behind the Knights who have the bye. The Cowboys could also leap them with a win over the Raiders.
7. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (32 points, +42)
Best-case finish: 6th
Worst-case finish: 7th
Remaining games: BYE
Analysis: The Knights can sit back and relax on the bye round. They can not finish any lower than seventh, but will be hoping South Sydney slip up against the Roosters to guarantee themselves a home final at Newcastle.
8. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (32 points, -64)
Best-case finish: 7th
Worst-case finish: 8th
Remaining games: Raiders (H)
Analysis: The Cowboys will be travelling away from Townsville, but the question is whether it will be to play the Sharks or one of the Knights and Rabbitohs. If Souths wins on Friday night the Cowboys won’t be able to finish higher than eighth even with a win over the Raiders.
PREDICTED WEEK 1 OF THE FINALS (per Fox Sports Lab)
Panthers (1st) vs Roosters (4th)
Warriors (2nd) vs Dolphins (3rd)
Sharks (5th) vs Cowboys (8th)
Rabbitohs (6th) vs Knights (7th)