Berl modelling found 14,930 students who achieved Level 2 in 2025, almost a third of successful students, could be exposed under a more prescribed, subject-based system.
Of the 64,403 Year 12 students included in the analysis, 46,165, or 71.7%, achieved NCEA Level 2 last year.
Another 18,238 did not achieve the qualification.
Berl said the 14,930 students at risk under the new approach, or 32.3% of students who gained Level 2 that year, had enough credits to pass but their credits did not fall neatly across at least three recognised subjects.
Under the proposed system, students would need to pass at least three individual subjects, such as English, maths or science.
Schools face multimillion-dollar implementation bill
Berl estimated the changes could cost between $49.2m and $57.8m to implement across 487 secondary schools.
Most of that cost, between 70% and 74%, would come from hiring relief teachers to cover staff working on the changes. The estimate did not include additional costs, such as teacher training and IT changes.
The report said small and rural schools could be hit harder because they had fewer staff and resources to take on the extra work.
New modelling raises concerns about how the Government’s proposed NCEA replacement may affect students who thrive in flexible and practical learning pathways. Photo / 123rf
Rural schools could also struggle to find enough relief teachers.
Schools in more disadvantaged communities faced what Berl described as a “double pressure”. They had the highest proportion of students potentially at risk under the reforms, at 55.9%, while having fewer resources to make the required changes.
Berl recommended extra funding and staffing support for schools that would struggle most with the transition.
It also called for vocational, project-based and culturally grounded learning pathways to be protected.
Without that support, the report warned the reforms could widen existing inequalities in education.
Māori and Pacific students face greater risk
Almost half of Māori students who achieved Level 2 in 2025 were identified as potentially at risk.
That included 4423 Māori students, or 48.1% of Māori achievers.
For Pacific students, 2359, or 42.6%, fell into the same category.
That compared with 30.5% of European achievers and 22.4% of Asian students.
The differences were more pronounced when schools were grouped by the barriers their students faced.
Almost 15,000 students who achieved NCEA Level 2 in 2025 have been identified as potentially “exposed” under a more prescribed qualification system.
At schools serving communities with fewer socioeconomic barriers, 18.4% of Level 2 achievers were potentially exposed.
Papakura High School principal Simon Craggs said he had been concerned since the new qualification was announced that it would put young people who could succeed under NCEA at risk.
He said students at schools serving communities facing greater socioeconomic barriers were likely to be hardest hit, particularly by greater reliance on external exams.
Craggs said his school would have to overhaul its timetable and many existing courses could no longer run because they combined standards from different subject areas.
He supported addressing inconsistencies between some industry and achievement standards, which he said had undermined NCEA’s credibility, but believed this could have been achieved without replacing the qualification entirely.
Why the Government says NCEA needs to change
Education Minister Erica Stanford has argued NCEA has become overly complicated and encouraged “credit chasing”, where the focus can be on securing enough credits to pass rather than gaining a strong understanding of a subject.
A main issue identified under NCEA was that schools could offer thousands of vocational standards, which were not always taken as part of a coherent programme.
Students could also use individual standards to top up their credit totals.
The Government believes the overhaul will give parents, employers and universities a clearer idea of what a student has studied and achieved.
Education Minister Erica Stanford is changing secondary school qualifications because she says NCEA has become overly complicated. Photo / Mark Mitchell
It also wants assessment more closely tied to the national curriculum, with clearer expectations about the knowledge students should have in each subject.
Stronger literacy and numeracy requirements are also part of the changes, while the Government says vocational and industry-based subjects will continue to provide alternatives to traditional academic subjects.
Under the new system, students will have to study at least five subjects each year and pass at least three to gain a qualification.
The Ministry of Education is working with Industry Skill Boards to develop subjects focusing on specific industries, backed by $15m in Budget 2026 funding.
Rachel Maher is the education correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. She also covers other topics such as Auckland issues, crime and local government. She started at the Herald as a breaking news journalist in 2022, before joining the Auckland team this year.
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