Records both on and off the track look set to tumble when Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising takes his place as the headline attraction in this month’s The TAB Everest.
Such is the hype and intrigue around the appearance of the world’s best sprinter in the world’s richest turf race, racing officials are readying for a record wagering hold for the World Pool event at Royal Randwick on October 18.
The Hong Kong Jockey Club’s Head of Commingling Sam Nati said it was “highly likely” that the looming The Everest would eclipse the previous Australian betting benchmark which was set when another Hong Kong champion, Romantic Warrior, won the 2023 Cox Plate.
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“The World Pool held $HK59.95m ($A10.9m) for Romantic Warrior’s Cox Plate win in 2023 but the way things are shaping it’s a mark we expect to be broken in The Everest,” Nati said.
“The 2023 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Royal Ascot holds the World Pool record for a single race at $HK66.2m (AUS$12.9m) and it is worth noting a Hong Kong horse called Wellington contested that race as well.
“Comparing records across jurisdictions can be difficult as it’s a very nuanced thing. With Tabcorp in Australia we have five bet types while in the UK we have eight which makes reaching that kind of number tougher.”
Romantic Warrior’s Cox Plate win in 2023 currently boasts the record World Pool hold for a single Australian race Picture: Brett Holburt
Having served in a number of key executive roles in Australia before making the move to Hong Kong, Nati is as qualified as anyone to speak on the habits of Hong Kong punters when Ka Ying Rising steps out for his The Everest bid.
“Whenever a Hong Kong horse contests a World Pool race there are three dynamics at play,” Nati said.
“First, the parochial support for the local increases average turnover and then ultimately the correction of the theoretical true odds boosts it further.
“But also, the profile and interest in the entire card seems to increase which we expect to be the case for the six races we are covering on The Everest-Caulfield Cup Day.”
With Ka Ying Rising already a red hot odds-on favourite for The Everest, Nati said a few factors would decide just how short the champion sprinter started in the showpiece event.
“One thing for sure is he’ll be very short early,” Nati said.
“Our local customers will be piling into him not only because they think he’ll win, but because there is a potential great sporting moment which they will want to celebrate.
“And there are other nuanced factors that might play a part also. All-up betting is very popular in Hong Kong so he will be seen as a standout to play in those.
“In a lot of respects, it depends on what the really big market-shaping players do late in betting. If they see enough value in other runners then the market place will get very interesting.
Ka Ying Rising will be the focus of all eyes for The Everest on October 18 Picture: HKJC
“Taking a line through Romantic Warrior’s 2023 Cox Plate win, he still paid shorter on the World Pool compared to the Starting Price ($2.80 vs $3.60).
“He would have been odds on in a local Hong Kong pool without this dynamic.”
Nati agreed that the projected fierce support for Ka Ying Rising could lead to greater opportunities for those opposing the Hong Kong champion come jump time.
“I think the World Pool does that for all races, but of course it will be more profound on this occasion,” Nati said.
“Back to Romantic Warrior’s Cox Plate, I can tell you it was not a good result for international customers betting into the World Pool. But when the HK customers get it ‘wrong’ the opposite is true.
“For a lot of Hong Kong customers his price won’t matter.
“If you look at Japan, which will run local-only pools on some big international races when Japanese horses participate, they have the same phenomenon.
“Their customers significantly over-bet their horses.
“I see Hong Kong and Japan as the most successful racing jurisdictions and part of that success just might be that racing is not only about the wagering, but very much about the sport itself.”
Ka Ying Rising arrives in Australia ahead of his The Everest tilt. Picture: Thomas Lisson
The decision by the Australian Turf Club (ATC) to lease its The Everest slot to the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) for the next three years is set to pay off handsomely.
Not only did it ensure the world’s best sprinter would headline the race and generate huge publicity both locally and abroad, wagering revenue from the World Pool is expected to rake in millions alone.
“Every jurisdiction has slightly different commercial outcomes, but in general an Australian meeting will generate returns from HK customers alone of more than $A1.25m,” Nati said.
“The World Pool also generates additional income from other wagering operators as well.”
Nati didn’t ignore chatter around heightened World Pool commission rates as opposed to those in play domestically.
“There is little doubt that the main criticism, perhaps the sole criticism, of the World Pool in Australia is the take-out rates,” Nati said.
“While I think there is a good case to be made for reducing them, at least for Australian races, it is far more complex than generally described and those conversations are ongoing.
“For me there are several things that get overlooked.
Ticket sales and hospitality package sales are going gangbusters for this year’s The Everest largely due to the appearance of Ka Ying Rising Picture: Sam Ruttyn
“Firstly, here in Hong Kong we round naturally either up or down while in Australia the rounding is always down.
“Secondly, as I’ve already mentioned, favourites are generally over-bet on the World Pool so reducing the takeout rate by a few percentage points isn’t going to suddenly make the odds of the favourite significantly better.
“In fact, in certain circumstances the odds may not change at all depending on where the raw price calculation sits.
“In more cases than not, the WP dividend is higher than the SP, it just happens to skew to mid-priced runners and outsiders as punters have become so favourite-focused.
“For most, reducing the take-out rate is a very dry and almost invisible benefit to their wallet.
“My view is that it’s far more beneficial to return take-outs to customers in an exciting, tangible, and engaging way.”