Mortgage pain: ANZ picks three more rate hikes by March

Liam Dann

Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·

21 Sep, 2026 04:56 AM2 mins to read

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ANZ’s chief economist, Sharon Zollner. Photo / Getty

ANZ economists have revised their outlook for the Official Cash Rate to reflect ongoing inflation risk as the Iran conflict drags on, pushing fuel prices up.

“We are adding in hikes in February and March in addition to October, which would take the OCR to a peak of 3.50%,” ANZ
chief economist Sharon Zollner said today.

Zollner said there were three underlying reasons for expecting the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) to hike more aggressively – including signs of recovery in the domestic economy.

“First, the crude oil price has lifted sharply: the spot Dubai price is now more than 40% above the RBNZ assumption [for the fourth quarter],” she said.

Second, the NZ dollar had dropped out of favour as global risk aversion has increased.