Wellington’s newest seat is shaping up to be a neck-and-neck race for the left, as Labour tries to reclaim a lost heartland.
Why is it interesting?
Home to more than 66,700 voters, the Wellington Bays electorate encompasses southern and eastern parts of the city and includes three major employers – Wellington Hospital, Wētā Workshop and Wellington Airport.
Previously poetically-titled Rongotai – meaning sound of the sea – its boundaries were redrawn last year to capture Mount Cook and Brooklyn, which were both part of the former Wellington Central seat.
As long as it’s existed under MMP, the seat has been held by the left.
Labour had it for 24 years, 18 of those with Annette King at the helm, but lost it in 2023 to Green MP Julie Anne Genter.
What happened last election (and what might happen this time)
Genter took the seat by 2717 votes against then Labour rival Fleur Fitzsimmons, with National’s Karunā Muthu coming in third.
Speaking to RNZ, King admitted Labour’s favourability fell in 2023, dwarfed by a Green momentum that had been building in both seats for several years.
“The tide turned, the votes changed, and so did the seat.”
But a recent Taxpayers’ Union-Curia* Poll of 400 voters had the party’s contender – Council of Trade Unions economist Craig Renney, a former advisor to Grant Robertson – in a deadlock with incumbent Genter at 29 percent for the electorate vote.
Muthu was third on 15 percent.
So who’s standing?
RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
At 51 on the list, Renney’s entry into parliament depends on the electorate fight.
He said the list placement didn’t feature in his mind, and he wanted to represent the area.
“Labour’s said quite clearly that it doesn’t want to deliver the cuts – the indiscriminate cuts – that this government has said it wants to deliver. I want to fight for every public sector job that needs doing.”
Genter hoped the voters would give her another stint at pushing for climate solutions and community services.
“Advocate for investment in the infrastructure that’s needed to deal with climate change, with the investment in social housing, and the wrap around support services, and of course more frequent, public transport.”
Muthu, a Wellington lawyer, is taking another shot.
RNZ / Baz Macdonald
He wants the second Mount Victoria tunnel to go ahead in a bid to ease congestion to Wellington Airport. It’s a multi-billion dollar roading project undergoing fast-track approval, but which has no start-date or funding earmarked for major construction yet.
“We haven’t said we are not going to do it…we are going to do it, [the] National Party is the only party that is committed to delivering the second Mount Vic Tunnel.”
ACT deputy leader Nicole McKee is also standing as candidate, pointing to stress with recent water bills from Tiaki Wai.
“The concern is the increasing amounts over upcoming years, especially when we have a society, not just Wellington Bays absolutely struggling with the cost of living.”
Opportunity’s candidate, former WWF New Zealand chief executive Dr Kayla Kingdon-Bebb, said Opportunity was running a party-vote only campaign.
RNZ / Baz Macdonald
“I think it’s fair to say there’s no centrist environmental party represented in government right now…we are able to work with the left or the right blocks.”
New Zealand First’s Gerald Warner is the only candidate not living in the area – he currently resides in Kāpiti.
The public servant said he wants to push for affordable social housing in the suburb, “balanced by responsible management”, citing the Arlington and Strathmore Park Kainga Ora developments.
RNZ / Zach Cornelisen
What do the locals say?
Outside the bustling supermarkets in Miramar and Island Bay, many voters RNZ spoke to were still weighing up their options.
“I’ve always been a bit of swing voter to be honest, I’m old enough to have seen a lot of changes, and a lot of failed policies,” resident Alan Rowell said, chuckling.
Dog walker Jess Bennett said improving public transport was her biggest concern.
“[The] buses are so packed in. Kids are sitting on top of the wheel base, falling over, people are having to re-wait again.”
At Tandoori Indian Flame restaurant, empty tables were giving manager Rajnish Prasad a headache.
“Many businesses are struggling in Wellington… the last couple of years it’s been really really hard,” Prasad said, adding that he couldn’t hire staff.
RNZ / Baz Macdonald
That was a thought echoed by Phil Hughes, at Palmers Garden Centre.
Garden centres had long been considered “recession proof” with people coming in to purchase home-grown vegetables – but that had changed.
He mentioned public sector job cuts, describing that as having a “massive effect” on businesses in the area – with residents either losing jobs, or feeling uncertain about the future.
At the moment, he wasn’t sure any of the parties were appealing to him.
“The key thing for me is to give the public somehow some confidence, that they can see that there’s a way forward.”
“Customers feed off that confidence and hopefully people feel a bit better…but at the moment it’s quite challenging.”
*Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand. In 2024 it resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body. The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers’ Union.