Based on these numbers, the coalition of National, Act and NZ First would gather 59 seats between them if an election was held when polling took place.
The bloc of Labour, the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity would trump that with 65 seats. The poll also showed these results would lead to an overhang of four seats above the normal 120.
That is based on Te Pāti Māori holding its four seats and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, running for her freshly launched Te Tai Tokerau Party, retaining the Te Tai Tokerau seat.
The 1News Verian poll results are collected through mobile and online panels. The poll had a sample of 1004 eligible voters, with a maximum sampling error of about ±3.4% at the 95% confidence level.
Preferred PM
In the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Christopher Luxon was on top – up two points to 19%.
Chris Hipkins was down a point to 14%, while Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick jumped two points to 8%. NZ First leader Winston Peters remained steady on 7% and Act leader David Seymour was also on 7%, up two points.
The results come after Labour and National kicked off their election campaigns in Auckland on Sunday. At the International Convention Centre in Auckland Central, National continued its rallying cry of “no new taxes” and claims the left bloc would introduce “nine new taxes”.
At the Due Drop Event Centre in Manukau, Hipkins dismissed National’s tax attack campaign as “bulls***” and his party unveiled a new cost-of-living policy – wiping 10% of student loan debt for those who didn’t benefit from Labour’s previous fees-free policy.
In the previous 1News Verian poll, carried out between August 8 and 11, the Opportunity Party cleared the 5% threshold for the first time to score 8%.
Labour was down two points to 30%, National was steady on 29%, the Green Party was down a point to 12%, and Act rose three points to 9%.
NZ First was on 8%, a three-point drop, and Te Pāti Māori was down one point to 1%.
Julia Gabel is a Wellington-based political reporter. She joined the Herald in 2020 and has most recently focused on data journalism.