“If you asked me the impact, it probably makes it slightly less favourable to more centre-right candidates, but this [race] isn’t about centre-right versus centre-left,” Farrar said.
“[This method] usually means it is not seen as precise as purely random.”
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5% at the 95% confidence level.
For the party vote, respondents were asked which party they thought they would vote for if another election was held today.
After Labour, the Greens were on 14%, Te Pāti Māori were on 11% and 10% of respondents were unsure. National and New Zealand First were on 6% each.
Te Pāti Māori has declared it would not seek the party vote during the campaign. Its strategy will be to ask voters only for the candidate vote in each of the seven Māori seats, meaning if constituents want their candidate in Parliament they will have to give them their candidate vote.
Labour has a similar strategy. Ramsden is not on Labour’s party list, meaning his only route to Parliament is by winning the candidate vote. The same goes for Ferris, who is now independent after a turbulent year with his former party, Te Pāti Māori.
Te Tai Tonga MP Tākuta Ferris (left) and Labour’s candidate for the seat in the 2026 election, Mananui Ramsden.
In the 2023 election, Ferris won Te Tai Tonga over incumbent Rino Tirikatene by a margin of 2824 votes. Tirikatene had held the seat since 2011.
In the latest poll by Curia, respondents were asked which candidate or political party’s candidate would receive their electoral vote to be the MP for Te Tai Tonga.
Ramsden received 30% of responses, Te Pāti Māori candidate Lisa Marie Murch was on 17%, Green Party candidate Lisa Te Morenga was on 16% and Ferris was on 15%. Seventeen per cent were unsure.
Respondents were also asked to rank Ferris’ performance as an MP over the past three years as good, average or poor. He received a positive net approval, meaning more people were positive about his performance than negative.
Just over 40% said he had performed average, 29% said good and 11% said poor. One fifth were unsure.
The polling showed the most important issues for Te Tai Tonga that could impact respondents’ votes were cost-of-living (29%), healthcare (16%), jobs (8%), the environment (8%), Te Tiriti o Waitangi (7%) and infrastructure (7%).
The results will be put to candidates during the Te Tai Tonga electorate debate tonight. The debate will be moderated by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox and broadcast live on Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+at 7.00. The debate will also be streamed live through the Te Ao Māori News app, Facebook and YouTube channels.
Julia Gabel is a Wellington-based political reporter. She joined the Herald in 2020 and has most recently focused on data journalism.