Well Written has never raced on a track rated worse than a Soft 5 but champion New Zealand jockey James McDonald, who rides favourite Autumn Boy, says Well Written should get what she needs to show her best.
“The track was a Good 4 this morning and there is only 9mls of rain forecast and it is that hot they usually would have put close to that on just through irrigation any way,” McDonald told the Herald.
“I reckon the track will probably end up a Soft 5 or 6, which will suit most horses and should be fine for her.
“The only thing I could see making it worse than that is rain during the meeting, which can change any track.”
McDonald says he has been impressed by Well Written but realises she faces a stronger field, travel challenges and big-time Sydney racing pressure.
“My horse [Autumn Boy] is going to be tough to beat because when he ran second to Sheza Alibi in the Doncaster here he beat the others pretty easily and that was obviously a very similar race,” says McDonald.
“While I don’t think the track will get too wet if we do get some rain they will start getting away from the inside, which would make things interesting.”
Well Written’s best-case scenario is a Good 4 track, sitting three pairs back on the outer and then new jockey Zac Lloyd not having to launch her until the 300m mark, preferably with Autumn Boy forced back behind her.
If she can bring her New Zealand razzle-dazzle to Sydney under those circumstances she can win but the difference in the scale of her challenge is best demonstrated by the market: she has averaged a $1.25 dividend in her last five New Zealand wins, she will start around the $4 mark today.
After several seasons of New Zealand-trained horses struggling in Australia’s best Group 1 company, Well Written will be carrying a nation’s racing pride today as Kiwis crave a new racing heroine.
McNab to star
Punters should have a pretty simple pathway to success at Matamata today: back jockey Michael McNab.
The premiership leader has a remarkably strong book of rides with five favourites and three second favourites on the nine-race card.
McNab has had a stunning spring, already sitting nine wins clear on the national premiership (27 to 18 over George Rooke) while he is riding a winner every four rides, by far the best strike rate in the country.
He is not only dialled in but clearly very fit as he will get down to 53.5kg to partner Astoria Brooke (R8, No 5) in today’s $80,000 Fairview Matamata Kamai Stakes.
“She has to be a good ride and it is a strong book right across the day,” says McNab.
“The one issue a few of them have are wide draws so because of that if I had to pick my best chance as Typhoon Lucy [R7, No 11] because she has a good draw.”
Perfectly placed
Further south, Qali Al Farrasha is beautifully placed in the $100,000 Breeders Stakes at Hāwera but would like the sun to stay out in Taranaki.
She won the Auckland Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe last spring, beating Group 1 winners Provence and Jaarffi.
As a Rating 102 mare against opposition rated no higher than Rating 88 today, the weight-for-age scale gives her a huge advantage.
The main concern for punters is her winning form has been on Good tracks and she has yet to win in nine starts on Soft, with Hāwera rated a Soft 7 on Friday.
Qali Al Farrasha has raced mostly at the highest levels for the last two seasons and won fresh up over 1400m two years ago, so if Hāwera continues to dry, she picks herself in New Zealand’s richest race of the day.
Tajana is the other obvious danger with serious black type form last season and the added bonus of being able to handle rain-affected tracks if, as likely, the surface stays in the soft range.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s racing editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.