Strong demand from overseas, more flights and new routes, especially to and from Christchurch, are expected to feature prominently.
“Overseas visitors are coming to New Zealand in growing numbers, and airlines are adding seats to match. It’s New Zealanders travelling overseas that are lagging.”
ISD Partners forecast Melbourne and Singapore to have the biggest capacity boosts, and the South Island to have more capacity growth than the North.
But the US, with its strong dollar, is expected to have an 8% capacity drop this summer compared to a year before.
Hawaiian Airlines will stop flying to Auckland after more than a decade running a seasonal service.
ISD Partners said Qantas was cutting Auckland-New York flights back from six to five a week.
And it said on that route, Air New Zealand would deploy a premium-heavy 214-seat Dreamliner instead of a 275-seat configuration.
Lake Wakatipu and Queenstown. The South Island is having an outsized influence on projected summer visitor numbers. Photo / Reboredo Sergi, Hemis via AFP
Simon White, EVT Hotels New Zealand and Pacific country manager, said the South Island was clearly doing well.
“Queenstown is our powerhouse.”
He said the alpine holiday hotspot had not “missed a beat” and had strong demand from Australia and the UK.
In the North Island, Rotorua was an outlier.
“Rotorua looks like it’s going to have a cracker in November.”
He said the lakeside city had a blip for a few months but was in a strong tourism market position now.
EVT runs Atura, Rydges, LyLo and QT Hotels & Resorts.
White said overall visitor numbers from China to New Zealand still had a way to reach pre-Covid peaks.
But Australia, the US and Taiwan had been up on pre-pandemic levels, he said.
He said some of the credit for that should be given to Tātaki Auckland Unlimited and Tourism New Zealand for promoting New Zealand destinations.
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said many Kiwis were probably deferring travel.
“Households in general have been pretty much under the pump, so that’s sapping discretionary spending.”
The exchange rate was a challenge for outbound demand, with the NZ dollar near 17-year lows compared to the Australian dollar.
Smith said Australia’s economy had strong momentum but was slowing, whereas New Zealand had less momentum but was picking up.
A New Zealand company’s air travel outlook says Melbourne will be the biggest seat mover for extra capacity this summer. Photo / VisitVictoria
The South Island appeared to be having a mostly more vibrant economy and tourism sector than the North.
“There’s a lot more connectivity with Christchurch being more of an international hub,” Smith added.
Christchurch Airport has said the 2026/27 summer will be its biggest season.
It said airlines were adding new long-haul routes, more flights and larger aircraft.
Christchurch Airport said 1.27 million international seats would be available across the season between November and March, 21% more than last summer.
Air New Zealand will operate three weekly services to Singapore from October 28, Tokyo from November 28, and Perth from November 30.
The airport has said those Air NZ services alone would add more than 92,000 seats to its international network.
For Australia, Air NZ and Jetstar would fly from Christchurch to Perth.
For China, China Southern would fly Auckland-Guangzhou services and Air China would add more Beijing flights.
Singapore Airlines will use the Airbus A380 jumbo jet for regular Singapore-Auckland services this southern summer.
For Hong Kong, ISD Partners said Cathay Pacific would move some flights to the Airbus A350-1000 from smaller aircraft.
New Zealand had a July record for overseas visitors and finally surpassed pre-Covid visitor levels for a single month.
But the ISD Partners forecast is for arrivals plus departures, not just international visitors, and is for a rolling 12-month total.
John Weekes is a business journalist covering aviation. He also has experience covering consumer affairs, crime, politics and courts.
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