Meanwhile, the Opportunity Party had increased 0.3 points to 4.8%, below the 5% threshold needed to enter Parliament without an electorate seat.
Several recent mainstream public polls had placed Opportunity above 5%. Given the poll’s 3.1% margin of error, the pollster’s statement acknowledged there was a 42% chance Opportunity was above the 5% threshold.
The poll, which surveyed 1000 people, was conducted between October 1-5 and was done by phone (landlines and mobile) and online. Curia also does internal polling for the National Party.
On the poll’s numbers, National would lose two seats from last month’s poll to have 37, while Labour would have an extra seat with 36.
The Green Party would have 17, NZ First 16, Act 12 and Te Pāti Māori two, although Te Pāti Māori could earn more by winning more electorates. Opportunity would receive none, assuming leader Qiulae Wong didn’t win the Mt Albert seat.
Opportunity Party Leader Qiulae Wong is running in Mt Albert. Photo / Dean Purcell
That would put the combined projected seats for National, Act and NZ First at 65 and enough for a majority in the House. The bloc of Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity would have 55.
In the preferred Prime Minister ratings, Labour leader Chris Hipkins had jumped 4.1 points to 21% but still trailed National leader Christopher Luxon, who was unchanged on 21.2%.
Two polls were released on Tuesday. The RNZ-Reid Research poll had Labour as the largest party at 30.8% followed by National (25.9%), Greens (14.8%), NZ First (10.6%), Act (9%), and Opportunity (5.5%).
Meanwhile, the 1News-Verian poll had National (29%) just ahead of Labour, which was on 28%. The Green Party was on 16% and New Zealand First was 10%. Act was on 9% and Opportunity on 7%. Te Pāti Māori was on 1%.
Alongside today’s national poll, a separate survey was done of voters in Auckland’s Mt Albert electorate, which is currently held by Labour’s Helen White.
The poll had a smaller sample size of 400 respondents and had a higher margin of error at 4.9%.
Excluding the 26 respondents who were undecided, 31% said they would give their party vote to Labour, compared with 28% who would vote National. The Green Party had the third-highest share at 17%, followed by Act (7%), NZ First (7%) and Opportunity (6%).
Asked about their electorate vote, 31% said White, 26% said National’s Melissa Lee, 18% said Green MP Ricardo Menéndez March and 8% said Wong. Sixty-six respondents were undecided.
Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.