What will £10,000 of SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock be worth in the not-too-distant future? If some of the more fantastic promises coming out of the space company are made good, then the answer could be a helluva lot of money!
For example, Mars Base Alpha might be established somewhere near Arcadia Planitia on the Red Planet in the 2030s. The colony could count thousands of inhabitants. Starship could be carrying 100 people there and back on every voyage. I don’t know any analysts that have priced up SpaceX stock in this kind of eventuality.
That’s why I put the question to my ever-helpful assistant ChatGPT…
Question: “What will SpaceX share price be worth when Mars Base Alpha is up and running?”
The answer was the usual LLM hodgepodge of useful information spliced with strange or irrelevant details.
The most striking detail, I thought, was that part of SpaceX’s compensation structure involved a permanent Mars settlement of one million people (don’t worry, I checked it wasn’t a hallucination). This went along with a market capitalisation of $7.5trn and a share price of $550. That would imply £10,000 in SpaceX stock now would one day be worth in the region of £33,000.
On top of that, ChatGPT’s most bullish estimate was a $900 share price. This would mean the £10,000 of SpaceX stock is worth around £54,000.
If these figures seem a little low for a company spearheading interplanetary space colonisation, then it should be mentioned that this is all a bit of fun. ChatGPT can predict the future as well as the rest of us. That can be seen as a problem, but perhaps also an opportunity as well. Let me explain.
A buy?
The reality is that this is a highly-speculative company. The Starlink segment of the business (which is profitable) is its most stable element. But it’s hard to even guess where the artificial intelligence (AI) and ‘space economy’ segments might end up.
The risks are enormous. Who knows how useful sending stuff into space actually is? Maybe there’s a hard limit on demand – no matter how much payload Starship’s capable of putting into orbit?
On the other hand, the potential’s enormous too. The possibility of data centres in space (taking advantage of abundant solar power) is one thing. But who knows where a spacefaring humanity might end up? Some of us might even have grandkids that grow up on Mars! I suppose what I’m saying is we are in uncharted territory. That could be an excellent reason for a certain type of investor to search for more solid investment opportunities. But for an investor happy with exposure to this kind of high-risk/high-reward stock? I think SpaceX is worth considering.