Weather: Warm, wet start before Southern Ocean change sweeps across New Zealand

Monday brings rain to Northland, Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula and Waikato, with possibly heavy falls in parts of Auckland and Waikato. The rain will clear or ease during the afternoon and evening, although cloud or drizzle may linger.

New Zealanders should enjoy the sunshine while it lasts because rain is forecast for many areas by Thursday. Photo / MetService

Eastern areas will enjoy warmer, drier weather before rain catches up later in the week.

Christchurch and Ashburton are forecast to reach 27C on Tuesday, about 10C above average for this time of year.

Tuesday will bring scattered showers to the western North Island, with mainly fine conditions elsewhere apart from isolated showers in the south.

Rain will develop in the southern and western South Island, possibly heavy in Fiordland and Westland, while Canterbury, Marlborough and Nelson stay fine.

On Wednesday, potentially heavy rain spreads north across the South Island before turning to showers from the south.

🌧️ A front brings rain, showers, and gusty winds to NZ from Tuesday to Thursday as warm, moist air spreads across the country. Cooler Southern Ocean air follows late Thursday. ❄️ pic.twitter.com/uYGIiFCeIW

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) October 11, 2026

Most North Island areas can expect isolated showers, although Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay will stay dry. Rain will reach southern parts of the island at night.

Thursday brings rain and possibly heavy falls across the North Island, easing to showers later.

South Island showers may be heavy in the south, clearing in the west later. By Thursday, Christchurch’s forecast high will fall to 13C, while Timaru is expected to reach just 12C.

Tom Eley is a multimedia journalist at the Waikato Herald. Before he joined the Hamilton-based team, he worked for the Weekend Sun and Sunlive. He previously worked as a journalist at Black Press Media in Canada and won a fellowship with the Vancouver Sun.