“Over the weekend, we saw European telcos get really smoked as well,” he added. Deutsche Telekom fell 7.9%. Vodafone PLC was down 4.5%.
In the US, T-Mobile dropped by as much as 13% intraday on Saturday (NZT) trading, while AT&T shares closed down 9.85%.
“The threat of SpaceX on traditional mobile operators will continually hover over these stocks. SpaceX is unlikely to stop with the US,” Solly said.
“The good news is that Spark has time to get ahead of it.”
In August, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell first surprised analysts during a quarterly results conference call by saying her company planned a terrestrial network in the US, which would put it head-to-head in the mobile market with T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T. It had already spent billions on mid-band spectrum to underpin the plan.
At the time, Spark chief executive Jolie Hodson said New Zealand’s Government needed to consider sovereignty and resilience issues as it divvied up spectrum (which is sometimes auctioned to eligible parties, and sometimes directly allocated).
2degrees chief executive Mark Callander struck a similar note, telling the Herald: “It is important to consider who owns, controls and operates critical communications infrastructure.
“New Zealand has established regulatory and legislative safeguards to protect national interests, data security and consumer privacy and maintaining those protections will remain important as new technologies emerge.”
Satellite newcomer AST SpaceMobile has touted the ability of its tennis court-sized 5G arrays, which it says will be able to penetrate roofs when it launches later this year, on paper at least eliminating one of the major drawbacks of satellite-based mobile connectivity: the need for line-of-sight to the sky.
Low-band spectrum, like the 800MHz acquired by Starlink in the US, is best for beaming a 5G signal from a “cell tower in the sky” (AKA a satellite) to a mobile phone, but Musk’s firm has also made it clear it wants to build “femocells”, or mini cell sites, all over the US.
Spark, One NZ and 2degrees are all resellers of Starlink’s business-grade product and have all pitched its dish-based service as a sensible way to fill uneconomic-to-service mobile blackspots.
Government bulwark?
Spark and One NZ also partner with Starlink on satellite-to-mobile, while 2degrees has tied its fortunes to AST SpaceMobile.
The question now is whether Musk’s company is satisfied to nibble around the edges or whether (as in the US) it wants to try to eat their lunch too by becoming a full-blooded mobile operator with its own cell towers.
Would our Government sell Starlink the necessary spectrum?
Communications Minister Paul Goldsmith would not rule it out when approached by the Herald after he opened 2degrees’ SpaceMobile ground station in Marton on August 26.
“We want New Zealanders to have the best possible connectivity but, obviously, we want to see our local providers having a fair playing field and so that’s a relevant factor,” Goldsmith said.
Although Spark had only seen modest dips over Friday and Saturday trading, Solly saw the SpaceX threat as one of the factors behind the telco hitting historic lows over the past 12 months. It had put pressure on the sector worldwide.
He saw Musk’s mobile ambitions as something for shareholders in telcos around the world to consider over the years ahead.
“For investors, the SpaceX push may not be an immediate issue but it raises questions about long-term valuations,” Solly said.
Chris Keall is an Auckland-based member of the Herald’s business team. He joined the Herald in 2018 and is the technology editor and a senior business writer.