On those numbers, National and Labour would win 34 seats each, with 18 for the Greens, 12 each for Act and NZ First, and 10 for Opportunity.
The poll assumed Te Pāti Māori would win four electorates and the Te Tai Tokerau Party would win the northern Māori electorate, which would create a Parliamentary overhang and lead to 125 seats in the House.
The poll shows both blocs would require Opportunity’s support to hold a majority in the House.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has said his door was open to Opportunity, but National’s Christopher Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with the party’s leader Qiulae Wong.
In the preferred Prime Minister ratings, Luxon and Hipkins were tied on 20% with the latter receiving a 2-point boost from last week. The closest to the two leaders was NZ First leader Winston Peters on 7%.
Last week’s 1News-Verian poll also had Opportunity holding the power with 7% support and neither the left nor right blocs able to command a majority in the House.
Last week’s RNZ-Reid Research poll had Labour as the largest party at 30.8% followed by National (25.9%), Greens (14.8%), NZ First (10.6%), Act (9%) and Opportunity (5.5%).
Both polls were released last Tuesday, although their fieldwork was conducted at different times.
Thursday’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll had National with the largest share of support at 28.5%. Labour was on 28.2%, the Greens on 13.3%, NZ First on 12%, Act on 9.2% and Te Pāti Māori on 1.4%.
Opportunity was on 4.8% but the pollster acknowledged the 1.3% margin of error meant there was a 42% chance Opportunity was above the 5% threshold.
The latest 1News-Verian poll surveyed 1007 eligible voters between October 8 and 12 and has a maximum margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.