Opportunity remains kingmaker while the major parties – Labour and National – are tied in the latest 1News Verian Poll.
Party support has remained largely stable, with only small moves up or down.
National has slipped 1 point to 28 percent, tying them with Labour, also on 28 percent.
The Green Party have slipped slightly, falling 1 point to 15 percent.
The ACT Party has gone up 1 point, tying them with New Zealand First who also sits on 10 percent.
Te Pāti Māori is down to just 0.4 percent.
If replicated at the election, that would give National 34 MPs and New Zealand First and ACT 12 – a coalition bloc of 58.
On the left, Labour would get 34 MPs, the Greens 18, Te Pāti Māori four – depending on how the Māori seats were calculated – and Te Tai Tokerau Party one seat – 57 together.
Opportunity would have 8 seats, meaning they would get to decide who governed.
The previous 1News Verian Poll – released last week – put both major parties neck and neck, with National on 29 percent and Labour on 28.
Meanwhile, the Greens were on 16 percent, New Zealand First on 10 percent and ACT on 9 percent, with Te Pāti Māori on 1 percent and Opportunity on 7 percent.
Between October 8 and October 12 2026, 1007 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online using online panels (506). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1percent-points at the 95 percent confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5 percent, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.