Much like his characters in his blockbuster action flicks, Tom Cruise is hanging on for dear life in the Best Actor Oscar race.
Digger was hit with a shovelful of disastrous reviews and box-office numbers, causing Alejandro G. Iñárritu‘s global-warming satire to drop out of several Oscar categories. But not Best Actor.
Per the Gold Derby experts’ odds, Cruise has a 57% chance of receiving a nomination, trailing only John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Andrew Scott (Elsinore), and Matt Damon (The Odyssey).
His performance in Digger has been heralded as one of the greatest of his career, and that’s saying something. The movie star has been nominated in this category twice before, for Born on the Fourth of July (1989) and Jerry Maguire (1996). He also has a supporting bid for Magnolia (1999) and a producing nod for Top Gun: Maverick (2022).
Let’s dive into the five reasons why Cruise is still a serious Best Actor Oscar contender, despite all of the Digger discontent. Warning: we will be discussing spoilers — so make sure you see the movie before reading any further!
1. HOLLYWOOD HAS HIS BACK
John Goodman, Tom Cruise, and Alejandro G. Iñárritu on the set of ‘Digger’Seoju Park/Warner Bros.
The list of filmmakers and actors publicly defending Digger and Cruise just keeps growing. Ron Howard posted that his Far and Away actor delivered an “outstanding performance … it’s one of those rare ones.” Jane Fonda praised Cruise’s “courage,” adding, “It was a big, brave risk for him [and] he went all out, 100% owning the part.” Padma Lakshmi encouraged everyone to ignore the reviews, saying the lead actor “is great in this.”
And they are just the tip of the iceberg. Anne Hathaway, Cruise’s co-star in Days of Thunder 2, said Digger is “brilliant, smart, trippy, aggressive, funny, and ambitious.” Neil Young described it as “a film of our times” and the “best film” he’d ever seen. Mandy Patinkin raved that it’s “everything we all love about cinema.” Hannah Einbinder saw the film twice and “loved it” both times.
Iñárritu’s director friends also came out in support of Digger. Guillermo del Toro labeled it “daring, bold, and cinematically complex.” Alfonso Cuarón posted old critical pans for films that are now seen as must-see classics. And Ben Affleck called it an “ambitious movie made by interesting people who have talent,” a sentiment seconded by Ben Stiller.
Clearly, the industry got the memo that Digger was being treated unfairly by critics and audiences, and is hoping that a collective rallying cry could change the narrative. Fortune estimates that Warner Bros. will lose nearly $250 million on the film, deepening Hollywood fears that studios will stop greenlighting risky original content unless things turn around. Oscar nominations would certainly help.
2. DUAL PERFORMANCES
Tom Cruise in ‘Digger’Warner Bros.
At the most recent Oscars, Michael B. Jordan won Best Actor for playing twin brothers Smoke and Stack in Sinners. That was the third time in this category that someone prevailed for playing dual roles, following Fredric March as the titular characters in Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde (1931), and Lee Marvin as Kid Shelleen and Tim Strawn in Cat Ballou (1965).
Academy Award voters have a long history of nominating actors who take on multiple roles, as it’s a great way to illustrate the performer’s range. Other Best Actor examples include Jack Lemmon as Jerry and Daphne in Some Like It Hot (1959), Dustin Hoffman as Michael Dorsey and Dorothy Michaels in Tootsie (1982), and Nicolas Cage as Charlie and Donald Kaufman in Adaptation (2002).
Cruise could be next. He plays both Digger Rockwell, the billionaire oil tycoon, and Curtis Markson, the stage actor who portrays Digger in the climate-change play Fossil Fools. Cruise effortlessly sinks his teeth into both roles, explaining on the campaign trail, “As an actor, I found that [commonality] by going from Digger to Curtis. I think there’s a Curtis in all of us, in some ways. And there’s a Digger in all of us.”
3. NONSTOP PRESS
Alejandro G. Iñárritu and Tom Cruise at the ‘Digger’ premiereMatt Crossick/Variety
Cruise has been out there promoting Digger in every possible way, from dancing through Jennifer Hudson’s spirit tunnel, to the worldwide tour that hit London, Mexico City, Los Angeles, Seoul, and Tokyo, to various industry screenings and Q&As. We’re guessing a Hot Ones visit is right around the corner.
Often referred to as Hollywood’s last true movie star, Cruise knows the power he can bring to any project. To date, Digger has only made $39 million at the worldwide box office, and it’s startling to think how much lower that number would be without Cruise’s enthusiastic backing.
Oscar voters are well aware of the work Cruise is putting into this campaign, and that could end up paying off for him on nominations morning.
4. THE MAKEUP-ACTOR CONNECTION
Tom Cruise and Sandra Hüller in ‘Digger’
One of Digger’s strongest below-the-line categories is Best Makeup & Hairstyling, as the prosthetics designers had the challenging task of transforming Cruise into the balding, aging oil exec. There’s actually a unique connection at the Academy Awards between Best Actor and Best Makeup & Hairstyling, so Cruise could get swept up in the momentum for that craft race.
Recent films that got into both Oscar categories, based largely on the main actor’s physical transformation, include 2024’s Maestro (Bradley Cooper), 2022’s The Whale (Brendan Fraser), 2018’s Vice (Christian Bale), and 2017’s Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman).
5. A WIDE-OPEN RACE
Best Actor
1.
John Malkovich
Wild Horse Nine
2.
3.
4.
5.
Robert Pattinson
Primetime
6.
Ryan Gosling
Project Hail Mary
7.
John Turturro
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
8.
9.
Anthony Ippolito
I Play Rocky
The general consensus in the Gold Derby newsroom is that the Best Actor race is weaker than it’s been in recent years. As of this writing, our experts only believe there are two 100% locks for nominations: Malkovich and Scott. Damon is also looking strong at 93%. The last two slots, seemingly, are still up for grabs.
After the top three, there’s a big drop in the projected lineup with Cruise at 57%, and Robert Pattinson (Primetime) and Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) tied at 39%. Other contenders with double-digit support are Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!), Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky), and John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York).
We’ll find out whether Cruise has done enough to make it into the Best Actor field when the 2027 Oscars nominations are announced on Jan. 21 — see the awards calendar.