New Zealand’s housing market is still worth about $1.66 trillion and accounts for about 50 percent of household assets, despite years of flat and falling house prices.
Property data firm Cotality said New Zealanders had mortgages worth a combined $404 billion, while $78.1b worth of residential property had changed hands through 87,920 sales over the past 12 months.
Chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said national values were down 1.3 percent in the year to September, and also 1.3 percent in the three months.
The national market was still 18 percent below its previous peak.
Within that, there was regional variation.
Auckland values had dropped 3.2 percent over a year and Christchurch had grown 3.4 percent.
Kelvin Davidson.
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“There’s no single story across New Zealand at present. Some markets are proving more resilient while others remain under greater pressure, but nationally we’re still seeing a fairly subdued picture.
“Right now it’s still a big chunk of household wealth and it is important. At the moment in terms of consumer spending, economic activity, the boost that sometimes we’ve had from the housing market in terms of wealth effect is just simply not there. People are still pretty cautious in the housing market. There’s not house price growth coming through and that’s showing up in terms of still pretty subdued consumer activity.”
There were 6519 property transactions across New Zealand in September, Cotality data showed, around 14 percent fewer than the same month last year and the ninth consecutive year-on-year decline.
Davidson said he had initially expected there could be 100,000 transactions this year up from 90,000 last year but it looked like the year would end with fewer than 90,000. “A big gap not only compared to where we thought it would be but also compared to where we were last year when we thought we’d get some growth this year and actually it might end up going a bit backwards.
“It just goes to show what the impact of unexpected events in Iran, and inflation pressure, higher interest rates, economic uncertainty, these things are showing up in terms of reduced housing market activity. Buyers still have a lot of choice. That’s been in place for a long time.”
Advertised mortgage rates had shifted to 4.97 percent and 5.27 percent for one- and two-year rates, respectively, compared to an average 4.8 percent being paid on existing fixed mortgages.
“For now, the market looks more like a period of consolidation than the beginning of another significant upswing. Housing remains an extraordinarily important store of New Zealand household wealth, but the conditions for renewed momentum aren’t yet firmly in place,” Davidson said.
“All eyes will be on the next OCR decision on Wednesday 28th and of course the election shortly after. Property investment remains challenging at present, but some would-be investors will be buoyed by Labour’s commitment to 100 percent interest deductions and now ACT’s proposal to remove tax ring-fencing for property losses.”
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