Brokers are seeing the squeeze too. In the Mortgage & Finance Association of Australia’s August 2026 survey, 49.2% of brokers reported more clients unable to refinance because of serviceability, more than double the share six months earlier.
Mid-life and regional borrowers most exposed
Borrowers aged 35 to 44 recorded the fastest growth in strain, up 11.8% in the first half of 2026. Those aged 45 to 54 had strain levels about 13.6% above the national average in June. The same two age groups were also more likely than average to name interest rate changes as the main reason their repayments had changed, at 47.5% and 45.5% respectively, compared with 34.5% nationally.
Regional home loans were around 10.5% more likely than average to be under strain, with Greater Melbourne and regional Victoria recording the highest levels.
“Housing pressure isn’t showing up evenly across Australia; national averages can mask important differences between locations, life stages and borrower groups,” said Barrett Hasseldine, head of data science at Experian Australia and New Zealand.
He said the groups reporting the most rate pressure were often the same ones showing rising strain in their credit data.