Under the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement, New Zealand citizens can live and work in Australia indefinitely. Since July 2023, New Zealanders who have lived in Australia for four years also have a direct pathway to Australian citizenship.
A recurring concern among chief executives is the loss of young New Zealanders who cannot see enough opportunity at home. “New Zealand needs to be a country where talented people see opportunities,” says an engineering CEO. “There are just no jobs for them and they are leaving to find opportunities and potentially won’t come back.”
Mainfreight Group’s managing director, Don Braid, is seeing the trend first-hand: “The number of our younger graduate recruitments moving offshore has increased in the past 12 months.”
A state-owned enterprise chief reports the same pattern: “We are seeing an increased loss of youth around 23 to 30 leaving New Zealand with no intention of returning.”
A professional services director is particularly concerned about young men. “It seems harder and harder for our young male graduates to secure roles in a really tight labour market,” they say.
For others, the pressure is concentrated in industries competing directly with Australian employers.
A construction boss points to the “loss of key talent to increased opportunities in Queensland”, as the state ramps up infrastructure investment ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. Their answer is to “get jobs out ASAP and stick to the plan”.
A healthcare executive says the country needs to “stop New Zealand doctors and nurses leaving the country” by making it more attractive to stay.
It isn’t just frontline skills. “We are a net exporter of leadership talent,” says another professional services leader.
Could the tide be turning?
Despite the concern, some think the tide is about to turn. Economist Cameron Bagrie is relatively relaxed. “Australia is headed into a downturn and with that we will see a lot of people come to New Zealand.”
A real estate chief says they are already seeing it happen.
“We are seeing many New Zealanders returning and buying or renting here again.”
They attribute that partly to recent changes in Australia, saying the property market has cooled and left many people “with less money in their hands”.
Whether the migration cycle turns on its own or not, the concern running through many of the responses is that New Zealand cannot rely on returning expats to solve its skills problem. It also has to give talented people — particularly younger New Zealanders — enough reason to stay.
An energy CEO puts it plainly: “We need these skills back for the potential economic boom in front of us.”