By election month, prices were on average 6% above their pre-campaign level, against 7% in ordinary periods. A year after polling day, the gap was similarly modest: 15.5% versus 12.3%. Go Tian said the difference is small, “suggesting prices follow the market’s underlying trend through elections.”
Sales were also little changed before a vote, up 0.7% compared with 0.9% in ordinary periods. “There’s no sign of buyers and sellers stalling before the vote,” he said.
The clearer shift comes afterwards. In the year after an election, sales averaged 11.5% above pre-campaign levels, compared with 2.4% in ordinary periods. Volumes rose after seven of the 11 elections, and homes sold about two days faster.
Weak lead-ups offer mixed signals
Housing policy dominated the 2014 and 2017 campaigns, and sales were down 8% and 13% by election month. The 26% fall in 2008 was driven by the global financial crisis.
A year after those three soft lead-ups, sales ranged from a 13% fall to an 11% rise, “so history doesn’t promise a bounce”.