The Greens say a surge in young people moving overseas since 2023 will cost the country $76 billion in GDP, $40 billion in lost earnings and $6 billion in foregone net tax over the next four decades.
The party commissioned Victor Consulting – run by Clint Smith, who has previously worked for the Labour and Green parties – to look at the country’s financial losses as a result of more young people moving overseas.
The Greens said the findings showed the need for government investment in job creation to keep young people in New Zealand.
Victor Consulting used official sources to estimate lost public investment, net tax revenue, earnings from work, and GDP.
The study found 77,500 New Zealanders aged 18-30 left the country “long term” between 2023 and 2025, which is 60 percent more than the 2016-2019 average of about 16,000 a year.
It said $29 billion of public spending on health and education had gone into this group before they left, and $12 billion of that would be lost for good with those who do not return. (The paper said Treasury observed 43 percent of young people who leave, never return).
The research said the government would lose $4 billion in tax over their working lives: $18 billion in net tax, partly offset by $14 billion of Superannuation and health costs avoided.
It said New Zealand would forego $104 billion in earnings from work and $196 billion of GDP over the next four decades.
“Compared to pre-Covid levels of emigration, this represents a loss of $6 billion in lost public investment and net tax, $40 billion in earning, and $76 billion in GDP.”
Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said young people were following the jobs.
“It’s normal for a number of young people to want to go on their OE. But what we’ve seen in the last three years is not normal,” she said.
“We do not need to wave goodbye to young people who don’t actually want to leave this country. We can have a sensible Government that invests in improving lives, lowering the cost of living, stimulating employment and economic resilience.”
Swarbrick said the coalition had not shown political leadership, but the Greens would, through its plan to create 64,000 extra jobs.