Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were rate changes announced today from Heartland Bank, Bank of China, and WBS. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There were savings account reductions from Sharesies, Squirrel, GoLend and Forsyth Barr. And term deposit reductions from China Construction Bank and First Credit Union. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

GIVING REALISTIC ADVICE TO MANY WHO RESIST
Barfoot & Thompson says landlords are under pressure in a sluggish residential rental market. Fewer people are viewing properties for rent and that is forcing some landlords to drop their asking rents. Such a downbeat report from Auckland’s largest realtor is probably a signal to their landlord clients that they are not being realistic about rent expectations.

STRUGGLING FOR MOMENTUM
The BNZ/BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) held steady at 49.9 in September, and that is not expansion. It is a familiar story, with the manufacturing sector struggling for momentum. The steam went out of new order growth in September, unfortunately. Lower interest rates will no doubt help the sector, but how much will actually flow through? Heavily-indebted companies that would get the most direct advantage are likely to be largely zombies. The benefit from lower interest rates for more well-structured companies will be because lower rates induce more business from their customers. But that is still an untested senario.

STAGNANT
The RBNZ updated its June record of the total value of all housing stock as at June 2025 to $1.645 tln. That is up +$1.8 bln from March (+0.2%) and up +1.6% from a year earlier. This value is from data from Cotality and includes the rise in new builds.

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.6% in its Friday session so far. That puts it -0.2% lower over the past five working days. It is up +3.3% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a sharp -2.2% today so far. Napier Port, Investore, Tower and SkyTV are the main gainers among the 42 who rose today. But Fletchers, Briscoes, Tourism Holdings and Mainfreight are the other big decliners.

ASSET SALES TO RAMP UP
The Government is mulling the sale of its stake in network infrastructure builder Chorus, with debt and equity stakes in the ultra-fast network builder to go on the block. No word yet on conditions or restrictions on foreign ownership. Chorus shares started the year at $8.81 and are now at $9.27, so a year-to-date gain of 5%.

DOUBLE DIGIT RETURNS I
We should also note that the Fonterra shareholder-owned FSF share price is now at $8.10, and started the year at $5.15, resulting in a +57% gain for the year. For the generally owned FCG share, that started the year at $4.20 and is now at $5.94, a rise of +41%.

DOUBLE DIGIT RETURNS II
Staying in the vein of farmer returns, beef and lamb prices are also rising very sharply, no doubt also enhanced in NZD by the weak Kiwi currency. Today, farmers are offered 817c/kg for bulls, 886c/kg for steers and 180c/kg for lamb. These translate to year-to-date gains of +28%, +37% and +36%.

DIMMER IS AUSSIE TOO
Australian business is in a hesitant spot too. Data out today for August shows monthly turnover fell -2.2% (seasonally adjusted) and this fall was the largest since April 2023 with drops across nine industries this month. Manufacturing was down -5.8%, tech was down -3.7%, and mining was down -1.9%.

INFLATION & JOBS RISKS RISE
At testimony at at Australian Senate hearing today, the RBA Governor talked up Australia’s economic prospects, but also noted that unemployments is likely to rise from here, and that higher household inflation is quite possible if they retain strong household income growth and weak productivity. Higher policy interest rates are likely if this persists.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be little-changed today for short durations but marginally higher for longer ones. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -13 bps on Thursday at 2.56%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from yesterday at 4.38%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.85%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.16%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Thursday’s rate down -7 bps to 4.11%. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps at 4.15%.

EQUITIES ALL LOWER
The local equity market is now down -0/7% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is softsh but little-changed in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.7%. Hong Kong is down another -0.9% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2% from yesterday. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session down -0.3% on the S&P500.

OIL LOWER
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc from yesterday at this time at just over US$61.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just under US$65.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades today so the price has held at $55.50/NZU which is its lowest since July. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RETREATS BELOW US$4000
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$40 from yesterday, now at US$3979/oz. Silver is volatile, up a net $1 to US$49.50/oz, but it has been well over US$51/oz in between.

NZD FALLS BACK
The Kiwi dollar has fallen back -50 bps today and is now at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -30 bps at just under 65.2.

DATA ADVISORY
This weekend we will be changing the way we report our TWI-5 index. The reason is here.

BITCOIN HOLDS SOFT
The bitcoin price is now at US$121,664 and down -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.5%.

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