When it comes to predicting the Oscars, the Screen Actors Guild Awards has long been one of the most reliable precursors — especially in the Best Actor category. For 10 years, from 2014 to 2024, SAG aligned perfectly with the Academy, predicting the eventual Oscar winner. That streak was finally broken earlier this year when Timothée Chalamet, won the SAG Award for A Complete Unknown, but ultimately lost the Oscar to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. This year Chalamet is looking to get the SAG Awards back in alignment with the Oscars and pull the double awards play for his performance in Marty Supreme.
So far, it’s looking pretty good for Timmy. He currently leads the Gold Derby odds for SAG’s Best Film Actor with a 92 percent chance for a nomination, narrowly ahead of One Battle After Another’s Leonardo DiCaprio, who sits at 89 percent. DiCaprio, however, holds the edge in the Oscars prediction center with a 94 percent at a nomination, while Jeremy Allen White continues to gain ground in third place. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) round out the top five, though Johnson has seen a recent 5 percent dip in odds, making his position in the SAG field more tenuous.
Film Actor
1.
Timothee Chalamet
Marty Supreme
2.
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
3.
Jeremy Allen White
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
5.
Dwayne Johnson
The Smashing Machine
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) currently leads in the SAG Best Actress category with a 96 percent at being nominated, with Cynthia Erivo close behind at 92 percent for her performance as Elphaba in Wicked: For Good. Emma Stone (Bugonia), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) and Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) round out the top five, though all three have seen recent declines in their odds — creating an opening for a new contender.
That contender could be Amanda Seyfried, whose performance in The Testament of Ann Lee has been earning rave reviews. She recently saw a 6 percent bump in predictions, moving her into sixth place and making her a serious threat to make the final lineup of nominees.
Adding more intrigue to the category, Chase Infiniti recently announced that she will campaign in lead actress rather than supporting for her role in One Battle After Another. Although she currently sits in eighth place in the SAG race behind Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Infiniti has logged the biggest recent gain in the category with a 14 percent surge.
Film Actress
1.
2.
Cynthia Erivo
Wicked: For Good
3.
4.
Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
5.
Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Talk about a tight race! In the SAG Best Ensemble category, it’s a tie between Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, starring Michael B. Jordan and One Battle After Another with both clocking in at 97 percent and seem virtual locks for nods. There’s no denying both films have an impressive cast as does the third place holder Wicked: For Good, which has yet to screen widely, and could see its odds shift as reviews roll in.
Hamnet, in fifth place among SAG predictions list, is in stark contrast to its first-place standing in the Oscars race. One explanation for this is the film may be seen as a showcase for Buckley or a two-hander between her and costar Paul Mescal (who is competing in the supporting category), rather than an ensemble piece. In any case, Hamnet’s ranking differential underscores a key point: unlike the acting categories, SAG’s Best Ensemble has only matched the Oscar Best Picture winner about 50 percent of the time, making it a less reliable predictor in this category.
Ariana Grande is in a strong position in the Supporting Actress race for her role as Glinda in Wicked: For Good, with 91 percent at scoring a nomination. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) follows at 83 percent, with Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), and Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) filling out the top five.
But Amy Madigan (Weapons) sits just outside the top five and is slowly gaining ground and could soon surpass Paltrow.
Film Supporting Actress
1.
Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
2.
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
3.
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
4.
Emily Blunt
The Smashing Machine
5.
Gwyneth Paltrow
Marty Supreme
Over in the Supporting Actor category, Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) is the current frontrunner, with Mescal in second. But Sean Penn has been climbing steadily, gaining 7 percent and closing in on Mescal. While Adam Sandler and Jeremy Strong round out the top five, with both holding steady but lacking recent upward movement.
Film Supporting Actor
1.
Stellan Skarsgard
Sentimental Value
2.
3.
Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
4.
5.
Jeremy Strong
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
While a SAG win isn’t always an Oscar win, the awards do remain a key indicator of industry momentum. Chalamet will be hoping that this year marks a return to form for SAG-to-Oscar alignment, while Seyfried and Infiniti could use SAG buzz to catapult themselves deeper into the awards conversation.