Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB has cut most fixed rates. They were joined by China Construction Bank, and Resimac. Details here. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB, BNZ and Heartland (and AMP) reduced rates today. And we have summarised where these rates have landed, here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FROM VICIOUS TO VIRTUOUS
We are still importing more than we export on an annual basis, but the latest -$2.2 bln merchandise trade deficit is a massive $7 bln smaller than last year and $13 bln smaller than the year before. Our exports rose +19% in September from a year ago, our imports were up +1.6% on the same basis. The fast improvement is occurring because our import appetite has been curbed just as our exports are mushrooming higher.

STILL STUTTERING
The September credit card billing data released by the RBNZ today has picked up some outsized softness in the most recent data. That is consistent with overall economic stutter. It was the largest monthly fall (s.a.) since October 2023

DAIRY’S STRONG RUN ENDING?
There is another full dairy auction tonight and the secondary and derivatives markets are signaling about a -4% retreat for both WMP and SMP. These signals haven’t been that reliable in the past but international trends for dairy fats (cheese, butter, etc.) have been weakening recently too. A lot depends on China demand, and recent indicators of Chinese holiday demand, September retail sales, and food prices all point to a lackluster backdrop.

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was little-changed in its Tuesday session, down just -0.1% so far. That puts it +0.4% firmer over the past five working days. It is up +2.0% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.8% today. There are 39 gainers led by Synlait, Briscoes, Ventia, PFI, Infratil and Auckland Airport. There are 40 decliners led by Mercury, Gentrack, Warehouse, and Precinct.

SAFE
It’s somehow become a bit of an anti-science culture war sideshow, but the High Court has now ruled that the EPA’s approach to glyphosate weedkiller (ie Roundup) has found that the experts the EPA used applied the correct judgement. They reached a similar conclusion to regulators from jurisdictions including the EU, Australia, and the US who have extensively reviewed glyphosate. They concluded it should not be classified as a carcinogen and that any potential risks from using the substance have not changed.

NOW’S GOOD
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US SHUTDOWN UPDATE
In the US, their Federal Government shutdown is getting ever more toxic, now in its third week. A key White House economic advisor said earlier today the shutdown is “likely to end sometime this week,” though warned that if it doesn’t, the Trump administration may resort to “stronger measures” to pressure Democrats. There seems no resolution in sight amid the partisan standoff. Republicans are pushing for a short-term funding bill to maintain current spending levels, something they railed against when Biden was President, while Democrats insist any deal must include expanded health-care provisions, specifically an extension of Obamacare tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025.

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be lower today across the board on global trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Monday at 2.53%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps from yesterday at 4.13%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.00%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Monday’s rate up +4 bps to 4.00%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 3.99%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY UP STRONGLY
The local equity market is now unchanged in Tuesday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.4%. Hong Kong is matching it, up +1.5% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.5% to start their Tuesday trade. Singapore is up a strong +1.4% at its open. The Wall Street ended its Monday trade yo +1.1% on the S&P500.

OIL DIPS AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc to just under US$57/bbl and the international Brent price is now just under US$61/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades today and the price has held at $55.90/NZU but with some showing softness. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS SHARPLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$80 from this time yesterday, now at US$4343/oz. But silver is down under US$52/oz now.

NZD UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is holding from this time yesterday at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are uup +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 61.9, little-changed.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,573 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, at +/- 1.6%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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