Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society (NBS) has cut its 2 year fixed rate to 4.59%. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BIG NEWS ! – SBS Bank has now ended its 4.35% 6 month ‘special’ which was the standout offer for savers. It is gone now, back to 3.55% for that term. NBS as trimmed its TD rates too, from 1 month to two year terms. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

CHARGING (SLIGHTLY) LESS INTEREST
Updated mortgage data out today shows that banks ‘earned’ $22.0 bln in interest in the year to September from their home loan portfolio. And that is now declining after it peaked in March at $22.6 bln. It will likely fall away quite quickly now as interest rates retreat from recent highs. But of course, total housing loans are still rising, so it won’t retreat in lockstep with the declining interest rates – there are more loans.

BIGGER BORROWING FOR NEXT-STEP PURCHASES
And there were +20% more new housing loans contracted in September compared to a year ago (20,577 vs 17,298) and the value of that new lending was up almost +25% (+24.9%). But that wasn’t because the volume and size of top-up lending were lower in September than a year ago; they weren’t (the average value of topup lending exceeded $109,000 which is only +3.6% higher). Nor are loan sizes rising especially for those who change banks. Rather it is because new borrowing for property purchases.(owner-occupiers and investors) are borrowing +7.5% more.

NOW’S GOOD
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NZX50 TURNS FIRMISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was firmer in its Friday session, up +0.2% so far. That puts it +0.9% higher over the past five working days. It is up +2.6% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another -0.6% today. Oceania, Vital Healthcare, Vector, and PFI lead the gainers, but SkyCity casino, Kathmandu, Turners, and F&P Healthcare are the big decliners.

AFTER EASING ALL YEAR FROM 4%, JAPANESE INFLATION RISES AGAIN
Japan’s inflation rate rose to 2.9% in September, up from a 10-month low of 2.7% in the previous month. Core inflation also came in at 2.9%, both basically as markets had expected.

INCREASING, BUT AT A SLOWER PACE
Japan’s services PMI eased slightly in October but is still expanding, even if not quite at the pace of September. But their contracting factory PMI got slightly worse in the month, according to the internationally benchmarked S&P Global PMI report out today.

SERVICES SECTOR RISES FASTER, BUT FACTORY SECTOR DIPS
Australia’s October services PMI rose to a faster expansion in October. But their factory PMI retreated from a small expansion to a small contraction.

EYES ON US INFLATION REPORT
The US federal government may largely be shutdown (apart from paying masked ICE agents, and demolishing the White House East Wing), but they do plan to release their September CPI data tomorrow. It came in at 2.9% in August and is expected to rise to 3.1% when tomorrows September data is released. Core inflation is also expected to rise to 3.1%. That will raise questions, not only for the Fed, but the bond market as well. Variations from the expected levels could make it a bumpy ride – in either direction. We will be covering the outcome in tomorrow’s Weekend Briefing. (Analysts will also be looking for credibility aspects, following the Trump replacement of the agency’s director and the subsequent dismissal of the interim director.)

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be little-changed again today across the board with the longer ones slightly elevated. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp on Thursday at 2.53%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.15%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.78%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.05%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Thursday’s rate up +2 bps to 3.98%. The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps at 4.00%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The local equity market is now up +0.3% in Friday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened back up +1.2%. Hong Kong is up +0.7% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.3% to start their Friday trade. Singapore is also up +0.3% at its open. The Wall Street ended its Thursday trade up +0.6% on the S&P500 making back the prior day’s losses.

OIL UP AGAIN
The oil price in the US is up +US$1.50 to just under US$61.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just under US$65.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE QUIET
There have been no trades today and the price has held at $55.80/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD TURNS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$44 from this time yesterday, now at US$4118/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps at 62.1.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$110,590 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND
It is the long Labour Day holiday weekend in New Zealand and this review will return on Tuesday, October 28, 2025. But there will be a Breakfast Briefing on Monday “as normal”.

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