A recent report by the Earth Innovation Institute (EII) estimates jurisdictional REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon could generate between $10 billion and $20 billion in revenue.The authors suggest that this funding could also scale up forest protection strategies, potentially reducing deforestation by up to 90% by 2030.However, experts are skeptical that these programs can ultimately address the root causes of deforestation and comply with proper consultation with local communities.Recent studies and investigations have revealed that many carbon credits do not represent real emissions reductions, are intertwined with environmental offenders and fail to include Indigenous peoples.
See All Key Ideas
A new report by the Earth Innovation Institute (EII) estimates that REDD+ jurisdictional projects in the Brazilian Amazon could generate up to $20 billion through the sale of carbon credits. The study also projects that, if fully implemented, these programs could accelerate forest protection measures and reduce deforestation by up to 90% by 2030.
The report was commissioned with an openly optimistic approach, according to one of the authors, as a way to counterpoint recent warnings that the Amazon is approaching a tipping point and may be losing its capacity as a carbon sink. “We want to show another side to the ‘point of no return’ argument,” Daniel Nepstad, lead author and president of EII, told Mongabay. “It is possible to avoid the worst outcomes that have been forecasted,” said Napstead, an author of several commentary pieces for Mongabay.
Over the past decade, jurisdictional REDD+ programs (the U.N. framework for reducing emissions by protecting forests in less-industrialized countries) have gained traction across the Amazon. These ambitious initiatives, run by state governments, involve issuing credits that account for emissions reductions on forestland across entire state territories. This includes protected areas as well as private properties, Indigenous lands and Quilombola communities.
Today, seven out of nine states in Brazil’s Amazon — Acre, Amazonas, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia and Tocantins — are implementing these programs at various stages of development. Several have drawn criticism over the years, ranging from methodological issues to inadequate consultation with local communities.
EII is involved in four of these programs, providing technical expertise and support. While the nonprofit is typically funded by philanthropic foundations, the group recently signed a partnership agreement with Mercuria Energy Trading. The former oil trading house has become a significant proponent of carbon credits in Brazil.
In 2023, the governor of Tocantins, Wanderlei Barbosa (at the center, holding a paper), signed a 10-year forest carbon credit purchase agreement with Mercuria, allowing the Swiss oil trader to offset its greenhouse gas emissions through the Brazilian state’s carbon reductions. Image © Antonio Gonçalves/Tocantins state government.
For this report, Nepstad and colleagues developed the concept of the Amazon Forest Climate Solution (AFCS), a series of strategies aimed at curbing wildfires, reducing illegal logging and restoring degraded forests. Among these initiatives are increasing livestock production on already cleared land, encouraging bioeconomy among local communities and accelerating low-impact timber harvesting.
The publication argues that if fully functional REDD+ jurisdictional programs were used to finance the AFCS, they could bring these initiatives to a larger scale. In their model, deforestation would drop dramatically, and the region could achieve twice the net emissions reductions from 2025 through 2030 than the European Union in the same period.
The authors also foresee substantial financial gains for the Brazilian states involved. Selling credits for $10-$20 per credit could generate between $10 billion and $20 billion in revenue, surpassing other financing mechanisms currently in place, including the Amazon Fund.
However, the author acknowledged that major challenges remain in realizing this vision.
Even after 10 years, jurisdictional REDD+ programs in Brazil have yet to sell carbon credits on a large scale. Most states are still in the development stage. Acre, the region’s oldest program, has signed an agreement with British banking group Standard Chartered to market credits, although no financial transaction has yet taken place. Meanwhile, Pará state, home to the so-called world’s largest carbon credit project, is being sued by federal prosecutors for issues related to a sale contract with foreign corporate buyers.
“The money from the jurisdictional programs hasn’t arrived yet, right? And there are several threats that could prevent it from arriving,” he regretted.
Nepstad attributed the challenges to a “fundamental misunderstanding” of jurisdictional programs. “The federal government isn’t showing much support for the jurisdictional network. There’s no real effort,” he said. The author also pointed to lobbying by private developers and the agribusiness sector, which he said are feeling threatened by these initiatives.
At COP29 in Baku, Pará Governor Helder Barbalho launched a bid to award 10,000 hectares (nearly 25,000 acres) to a private restoration company. Image courtesy of the Pará state government.
Jurisdictional programs face criticism
The REDD+ framework has been the focus of intense scrutiny in recent years. In 2023, a study found that 94% of the credits from the projects examined don’t represent real reductions in carbon emissions. Another study, published in 2024, said that projects often fail to prioritize Indigenous peoples, undermining the effectiveness of the framework in tackling the causes of deforestation. An investigation by Mongabay and The New Humanitarian revealed that even the U.N.’s claim of being carbon neutral through the purchase of carbon credits is tainted by several projects with environmental issues.
Experts interviewed by Mongabay questioned EII’s projections. “I’ve seen similar scenarios in various forms over the years,” said Jutta Kill, researcher and activist with the World Rainforest Movement. “If they became true, the world would no longer have deforestation. All of those scenarios have been shown to be fantasy.”
For Kill, the main issue with these models is that they assume carbon markets can somehow address root drivers of deforestation that have been around for a long time, including mining companies, agribusiness, infrastructure developers and ranchers who clear forest for pasture.
“Over 20 years of debate around REDD+ projects have shown that this instrument has no teeth to address these political interests,” she said. “Profit-interested large-scale deforestation has continued with its ups and downs as we have seen.”
Kill pointed to commercial logging operations that have repeatedly circumvented measures aimed at curbing deforestation. In 2024, for instance, Mongabay revealed a scheme in which loggers were using fraudulent documentation to launder wood illegally extracted from Indigenous territories. Mongabay also found that at least four REDD+ projects in the Amazon were developed in partnership with sawmill owners with a long history of environmental fines.
She said carbon projects not only have been proven ineffective but also are actually causing harm. “They have shifted the narrative to blame communities as agents of deforestation instead of criminal organizations and large corporations. It’s a very dangerous narrative,” she said.
Brazilian federal agents made arrests involving a carbon credit scheme led by Ricardo Stoppe, accused of land-grabbing and illegal logging. Image courtesy of the Federal Police.
Fabrina Pontes Furtado, a researcher at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, is also concerned about communities that are caught up in these initiatives. “They are not receiving the benefit as promised — quite the opposite,” she said. Furtado is one of the organizers of a recent report on the financialization of nature published with the support of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation (RLS). “We haven’t seen these resources reaching local communities.”
Furtado has closely followed the jurisdictional program in Acre state, arguably the most established, having conducted multiple visits there over the last decade. “We see community members complaining about broken promises regarding financial payments, the construction of power lines, schools and bathrooms — very little has been delivered as promised.”
She stressed that these promises were problematic from the start. “These should be public policies provided by the state. But what we see is the state strengthening the private sector while shrinking its own role in guaranteeing social protections — especially in communities that have historically been neglected.”
Furtado has even seen Amazon communities forced to abandon their land due to restrictions on land use. She said this particularly affects communities occupying land without formal permits. “These initiatives are affecting traditional ways of life, community living and in extreme cases, people are forced to abandon their land entirely.”
In her opinion, local communities agree to participate in these initiatives because their options are very limited. “The absence of options for these communities is brutal. The truth is that inequality is allowing these processes to advance unchecked.” Meanwhile, multiple jurisdictional programs in the Amazon have been criticized for lacking free, prior and informed consent. In some cases, meetings were held far away from communities, without clear information on project stakes or not even in the communities’ native language.
Banner image: The forests of the Matsés are one of the best preserved and most carbon-rich in the entire Amazon, and are home to some of the world’s last indigenous groups living in isolation. Image by Gloria Pallares for Mongabay.
Top brands buy Amazon carbon credits from suspected timber laundering scam
FEEDBACK: Use this form to send a message to the author of this post. If you want to post a public comment, you can do that at the bottom of the page.
