Researchers make jaw-dropping prediction about future threat: ‘Will have multi-century consequences’

Time and time again, we’ve been told that decisions we make regarding pollution will have major repercussions in the coming decades.

But a study has found that those decisions will also have long-lasting impacts, particularly on sea-level rise.

What’s happening?

Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis modeled what could happen to sea levels in hundreds of years, based on various emissions projections.

They found that if current environmental policies continue, the heat-trapping pollution from 2020 through 2050 would lock in an additional 1 foot of sea-level rise by 2300. If that level of pollution continues through 2090, that would lock in a rise of more than 2.6 feet.

The results were published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

“Our study shows clearly that mitigation decisions in the next few decades will have multi-century consequences for coastlines worldwide,” study author Alexander Nauels said.

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Why is this study concerning?

Pollution produced by burning dirty fuels has led to considerable global temperature increases. Thermometer readings have risen so much that the past decade has seen the 10 hottest years on record.

Those warmer temperatures cause sea levels to rise for two key reasons. First, glaciers and other polar ice melt, sending more water rushing into the oceans. Second, ocean water expands as it becomes warmer, causing an additional rise.

That rise has intensified in recent years, with the rate doubling since 1993. Researchers fear that could eventually put coastal communities at risk.

For example, the amount of sea-level rise projected by IIASA researchers would be enough to submerge some islands and other low-lying areas, or at least make them uninhabitable.

What’s being done about rising sea levels?

Some level of sea-level rise appears to already be locked in, the study revealed. But not all hope is lost for future generations.

With significant policy changes and a steep cut in planet-warming pollution, the amount of rise could vary significantly. 

The researchers specifically cited the Paris Agreement, noting that if countries reduce pollution to levels set out in that binding document, roughly 2 feet of sea-level rise could be avoided.

“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise that will reshape coasts worldwide for centuries,” Nauels said. 

“Importantly, we show that we still have the opportunity to limit the sea-level rise commitment we pass on to future generations.”

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