There were 14,000 migrant arrivals in July 2025 (up 8% on July 2024). There were 9900 migrant departures in July (down 1% on July 2024).
That took the monthly net migration gain to 4100.
If annualised, that would equate to a net migration gain of nearly 50,000.
The trend might show the fall in net migration was past its low point but the trend was still weak, ASB senior economist Mark Smith said.
“There are few catalysts on the horizon to turn around this soft trend and a lengthy period of subdued net migration inflows beckons,” Smith said.
The past two years have seen a massive drop-off in net migration numbers as large numbers of New Zealand citizens have departed and fewer migrants have arrived.
Annual migrant arrivals peaked at 234,800 in the year ended October 2023.
Annual net migration also peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 135,500.
Meanwhile, annual migrant departures provisionally peaked at 127,500 in the year ended June 2025.
“Annual net inflows remain well below decade averages and more than 120k persons lower than the late 2023 peak,” Smith said.
Annual net outflows of New Zealand citizens hit fresh record highs (47,600), driven by strengthening migration departures to a record high 73,480.
Work visa arrivals were steady at around 32,300 annually, well below 2023 peaks of close to 90,000.
This largely reflected the subdued demand for labour and significantly less acute labour shortages, Smith said.
“There is a large age gap between people leaving (median age 31) and people arriving (median age 21), suggesting a net loss of skills and experience abroad.
“Annual net immigration of those aged 15-64, ticked up to 6288 persons, but is miles below decade averages (38,000) and the 110,000 late 2023 peak.”
On a more encouraging note, there was a lift in student arrivals, Smith said.
Stats NZ noted that just under two in five migrant arrivals in July 2025 were on a student visa, coinciding with the start of the second academic semester.
Student arrival numbers have ticked up to 31,000 annually but remain below 2023 peaks.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.