Nokia Oyj has seen a subtle but meaningful uplift in its valuation narrative, with the fair value estimate nudging higher from €5.39 to €5.43 per share, even as the discount rate edges up from 7.04% to about 7.10% on a slightly higher perceived risk profile. These finely balanced tweaks reflect a market trying to reconcile growing optimism around AI driven network demand and cloud partnerships with ongoing caution on telecom capex and execution. Stay tuned to learn how you can track these evolving assumptions and keep on top of Nokia’s shifting narrative over time.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Danske Bank analyst Sami Sarkamies recently upgraded Nokia to Buy with a €6.50 target, framing the stock as a compelling AI linked equity and highlighting a favorable risk or reward setup into the upcoming Q4 report, which underpins the modest upward drift in fair value despite a higher discount rate.
JPMorgan lifted its target to €6.10 and keeps an Overweight stance, while Deutsche Bank raised its target to €4.75 and maintains Buy, signaling confidence that execution in network infrastructure and AI driven use cases can sustain growth momentum beyond the near term demand softness.
UBS and Raymond James, both raising targets to €5.40 and $6.50 respectively while remaining Neutral or Outperform, point to stronger than expected Q3 delivery in AI, optical networks, and cloud or network services as evidence of improving execution quality and better visibility, even as they flag that sector capex risks may cap upside.
SEB Equities return to a Buy rating with a €6 target reinforces a more constructive skew among several large houses, suggesting that, at current levels, many analysts see a reasonable entry point where improved cost discipline and clearer mid cycle growth ambitions are not fully priced in.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Citi retains a Sell rating and trims its target to €3.90, underscoring concerns that, for more skeptical analysts, valuation already discounts an optimistic recovery path and leaves limited margin of safety if execution around network infrastructure or mobile remains uneven.
Grupo Santander cuts Nokia to Neutral with a €6.55 target and explicitly plays down the Nvidia partnership as a potential game changer, a view that tempers some of the AI enthusiasm embedded in bullish targets and feeds into the slightly higher risk premium in the valuation work.
Earlier shifts at SEB Equities and Danske Bank from Buy to Hold, with targets around €5.50 and €6.50, highlight how quickly sentiment can turn when guidance or capital allocation disappoint, reinforcing the idea that, while upside exists, it is closely tied to consistent delivery against multi year growth and margin objectives.
Story Continues
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
HLSE:NOKIA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Nokia announced plans to invest $4B over several years in expanding U.S. R&D and manufacturing for AI ready mobile, fixed access, IP, optical and data center networking technologies, building on earlier Infinera related commitments.
The European Commission is considering a binding ban on high risk vendors such as Huawei and ZTE from EU telecom networks, which could create a structural demand tailwind for alternative suppliers like Nokia across the region.
Germany is moving closer to excluding Huawei from domestic 5G networks, potentially redirecting significant radio and core infrastructure contracts toward Nokia and other European equipment providers.
VodafoneThree awarded a £2B UK network expansion contract that splits radio access deployments between Ericsson and Nokia across tens of thousands of sites, strengthening Nokia’s position in the UK RAN market. Danske Bank recently cut its rating on the stock to Hold with a €6.50 target on valuation and execution concerns.
The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, moving from €5.39 to €5.43 per share, implying a modest upward revision of around €0.04.
The Discount Rate has increased marginally, from 7.04% to about 7.10%, reflecting a slightly higher perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
The Revenue Growth assumption is essentially unchanged, ticking up fractionally from 3.42% to 3.42%, indicating stable top line expectations.
The Net Profit Margin projection remains effectively flat, edging from 9.48% to 9.48%, suggesting no meaningful change in long term profitability assumptions.
The future P/E multiple has risen slightly, from 17.69x to 17.85x, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple applied to expected earnings.
Narratives are clear, investor written stories that explain the why behind the numbers, linking a company’s business outlook to a structured forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and then to an explicit fair value. On Simply Wall St’s Community pages, millions of investors use Narratives as an easy tool to compare Fair Value with the current share price and decide when to buy or sell, with each Narrative dynamically updating as new news, earnings and risks emerge.
Read the full Nokia Oyj Narrative on Simply Wall St to see how the story behind the numbers is evolving:
NOKIA, AI Demand And U.S. Expansion Will Shape Balanced Risk Ahead
Understand how rising AI and cloud data center demand, plus U.S. and EU network investment, feed into multi year revenue growth and margin expansion assumptions for Nokia.
See how execution risks in Mobile Networks, competitive pressures and currency headwinds are quantified in earnings forecasts and discount rates.
Track how the Narrative’s fair value, based on a 7.1% discount rate and future PE of about 16x, compares to today’s price and shifts as new research, deals and regulations emerge.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NOKIA.HE.
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