NEW YORK, Dec. 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in September 2025 to 98.3 (2016=100), after also declining by 0.3% in August (upwardly revised from an originally reported 0.5% decline). Overall, the LEI fell by 2.1% over the six months between March and September 2025, a faster rate of decline than its 1.3% contraction over the previous six-month period (September 2024 to March 2025).
“The US LEI fell again in September, marking a second consecutive decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weakening expectations from consumers and businesses led the overall contraction in the Index. Subindexes that contributed negatively to the LEI were consumer expectations and ISM® New Orders Index, followed by manufacturers’ new orders of consumer goods & materials, initial claims for unemployment Insurance (inverted), and the yield curve. However, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and manufacturers’ new orders of nondefense capital goods excl. aircraft did contribute positively to the Index. The LEI suggests slowing economic activity at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, with GDP weakening after strong mid-year consumer spending and Q4 disruptions amid the federal government shutdown. Overall, growth remains fragile and uneven as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand by 1.8% in 2025, before falling to 1.5% in 2026.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US rose by 0.1% in September 2025 to 115.1 (2016=100), following no change in August (downwardly revised from a 0.2% gain). The CEI rose by 0.3% between March and September 2025, down from 1.1% over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Three components of the coincident index improved slightly in September. Manufacturing and trade sales, which was estimated for August and September, was also positive.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US inched up by 0.1% to 119.6 (2016=100) in September 2025, after also increasing by 0.1% in August. The LAG grew by 0.5% in the six months between March and September 2025, slightly lower than the 0.6% increase over the previous six months.
Note on US LEI data for September 2025
Due to a lag in publication of the Census Bureau’s September building permits data, the series is estimated via statistical imputation using an autoregressive model.
The next release will be announced at later date.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
2025
6-Month
July
August
September
Mar to
Sep
Leading Index
98.9
r
98.6
r
98.3
p
Percent Change
0.0
r
-0.3
r
-0.3
-2.1
Diffusion
70.0
40.0
45.0
35.0
Coincident Index
115.0
r
115.0
115.1
p
Percent Change
0.3
r
0.0
r
0.1
0.3
Diffusion
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
Lagging Index
119.4
r
119.5
r
119.6
p
Percent Change
-0.2
r
0.1
0.1
0.5
Diffusion
21.4
50.0
35.7
14.3
p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected
Source: The Conference Board
Indexes equal 100 in 2016
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.
The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:
Average weekly hours in manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits for new private housing units
S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:
Payroll employment
Personal income less transfer payments
Manufacturing and trade sales
Industrial production
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org
SOURCE The Conference Board
