ANZ economists said: “Sales volumes are back below their long-run historic[al] average for this time of year”, referring to a lack of bounce from spring.
November’s activity had been weaker than the economists had expected.
Things could worsen for those hoping prices will rise.
“Renewed weakness in the housing market and the sharp increase in wholesale interest rates since the November Monetary Policy Statement [from the Reserve Bank] presents some downside risk to house prices,” ANZ said.
Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac Bank. Photo / NZME
Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the housing market had hit an air pocket in November, with sales dropping and prices nudging down.
The overall trend in the market remains flat.
Nationally, a mixed picture emerged.
“There’s been particular softness in prices in Auckland, down 1.5% over the past year and Wellington down 2.8%,” he said.
In contrast, Canterbury, Otago and Southland had all seen gains of around 2% to 4% over the past year, with many other regions recording modest gains, Ranchhod said.
The sluggishness in the market was notable, given the sharp falls in borrowing costs during the past year.
However, those falls have occurred at the same time as we’ve seen a large increase in the number of properties for sale.
Adjusting for normal seasonal trends, the number of homes available for sale is at its highest level in a decade, Ranchhod found.
Relatively firm levels of building were being recorded, including large numbers of townhouses and other medium-density dwellings.
That was happening at the same time as population growth had slowed, Ranchhod said.
In August, the Herald’s Liam Dann said this country was not experiencing a housing market meltdown but a full-blown crash.
The property market in Auckland and Wellington was experiencing one of its worst slumps, with values significantly below the 2022 peak, based on QV data, Dann wrote.
Auckland home values were 19.7% below the peak, while Wellington’s were 27.3% lower.
The downturn had impacted consumer confidence and the economy, particularly affecting property-related services in Auckland.
Christchurch city’s average home values were just 0.2% lower than the nationwide peak. Prices in those other regions were actually above the nationwide peak in 2022.
Anne Gibson has been the Herald‘s property editor for 25 years, written books and covered property extensively here and overseas.
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