What happened Friday | interest.co.nz

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here, and will be updated over the holidays as required. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None to advise here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

NOT AN ATTRACTIVE PROPOSITION FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS
The Kiwibank $500 mln capital raise is now off the table after terms couldn’t be agreed with investors. Kiwibank now claims it doesn’t require new equity at the moment to support its growth.

A FOUR YEAR HIGH
Consumer sentiment as surveyed monthly by Roy Morgan for ANZ shows a good recovery in December. It lifted 3 points from 98.4 to 101.5, the highest level since September 2021. They reported the proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose 8 points to -1. This indicator hasn’t been positive in more than four years but is knocking on the door. Inflation expectations eased from 5.2% to 4.6%, consistent with easing food price inflation. This survey confirmed Westpac’s quarterly survey released earlier in the week.

ENDING ON A STRONG MOOD UPSWING
ANZ’s business sentiment survey reports business confidence hit its highest level in 30 years in December with a net 74% expecting better business conditions, up 7 points. Expected own activity rose 7 points to net 61%, also its highest level in 30 years. Past own activity lifted 7 points to +29, a strong level (the highest since August 2021), while past employment lifted 6 points to +4, the highest since November 2022. Inflation indicators also rose a little: the net percent of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months lifted 1 point to 52% while those expecting cost increases rose 2 points to 76%. One-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.7%.

GOING LOWER
ANZ’s dairy analysts are just the latest to cut their milk price forecast for the current season. All current forecast positions are here. What makes the ANZ notable is that they are the first to drop it below $9, the current Fonterra mid-point, saying they think it will come in at $8.90/kgMS.

THE IMPROVEMENT HESITATES
Home loan affordability worsened slightly in November for first home buyers. House prices at the bottom of the market rose a little in November while mortgage interest rates declined a bit, making home ownership slightly harder for first home buyers

BIG TRADE IMPROVEMENT
We recorded an unexpectedly small trade deficit in November, only -$163 mln. In November 2024 it was -$450 mln; in November 2023 it was -$1.26 bln. Analysts had expected a -$1.1 bln deficit this month, so a huge surprise from there. Exports rose +9.2% from a year ago, imports were up +4.4% on the same basis.

EXPORT GROWTH TO THE US A KEY FACTOR
Our trade surplus with China was low in November, almost in balance (like it was in November 2024). But our surplus zoomed higher with the US, rising to +$258 mln in the month (it was a deficit a year ago). With Australia we ran a -$113 mln deficit tin November, sharply lower than the +$225 mln surplus a year ago. With Japan is was an unchanged -$85 mln deficit. With Korea, it was unchanged -$258 mln deficit. These gig five trading partners account for almost all of the November result.

FRUIT EXPORTS STAR OVER THE LONG RUN
StatsNZ is highlighting that fruit exports exceeded $6 bln in the year to November and a new record high. That is a strong gain from the $2.3 bln recorded in November 2015, a compound annual growth rate of +10.2%. Kiwifruit exports have been the star.

MORE SATISFIED
The Fed Farmers survey of rural borrowers reports that farmers are feeling more satisfied with their bank and under less pressure. In the November survey, 61% of farmers reported being satisfied or very satisfied with their bank, about steady from the May 2025 survey. “That’s a good improvement from the 51% satisfaction rate from our survey this time last year”, they said.

MORE ACTIVITY
Finally, activity on credit cards is starting to rise, up +5.8% from a year ago and the most since March 2023 when the pandemic recovery affected the growth rate. Prior to the pandemic, it is the most since March 2019.

OUR QUIZ WILL CONTINUE WEEKLY OVER THE SUMMER BREAK
Our quiz has been refreshed for this new week. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 DROPS, UP LESS THAN INFLATION FROM A YEAR AGO
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.9% so far today. That puts it down -0.2% over the past five working days. It is up +2.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.9% so far today. Kathmandu, SkyCity casino, Infratil, Channel Infrastructure rise while SkyTV, Ryman, Skellerup, and Serko fall.

BRICKLEBANK SWAPPING ANZ FOR ASB
ANZ NZ’s General Counsel and Company Secretary, David Bricklebank, is moving to ASB where he’ll be General Counsel and Executive General Manager for Business Services from late March next year. ASB says the move is subject to completion of regulatory requirements including Reserve Bank non-objection.

COST OF DOING BUSINESS I
In Australia, ASIC has hit Macquarie Securities with a A$35 mln penalty for mis-reporting short sales over many years, mainly because it was cavalier with its internal systems. It is estimated that Macquarie misreported between 298 million and 1.5 billion short sales.

COST OF DOING BUSINESS II
And staying in Australia, their Federal Court has added A$10 mln to the largest fine ever on an Australian Bank, taking it to A$250 mln. It is for widespread misconduct and systemic risk failures affecting the Australian Government, taxpayers and at least 65,000 retail bank customers.

SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates will likely be a little lower today across the maturity curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.50% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up another +1 bp at 4.76%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.83%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.52%. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Thursday’s rate down -2 bps at 4.53%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from yesterday at 4.13%.

EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market is up +0.9% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.9% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.3% so far and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore is unchanged at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.8% accepting the US CPI data at face value.

OIL TURNS DOWN
The oil price in the US is back down -US$1 at just over US$55.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$59.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE RISES ON FEW TRADES
Secondary market transactions are still small and far between, but todays took the price back up to $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$8/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4322/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.9 and up +10 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN SOFTER AGAIN BUT STILL VOLATILE
The bitcoin price is now at US$85,337 and down -1.0% from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.7%.

SUMMER HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
This is our final 4pm review for 2025. It will restart on Monday, January 12, 2026. We will still be publishing every day over the summer holiday break (except Christmas Day, New Year’s Day, and the day after each), so any important news about the economy will be covered separately. Our Breakfast Briefing and the related podcast will continue through this period. And our databases will be updated as changes come through.

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