Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Update: Westpac said it is hiking fixed rates on Monday. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FHB AFFORDABILITY SPREADS NEARLY EVERYWHERE
It turns out that 2025 was a very good year for first home buyers. They were helped by stagnant prices, plenty of stock to choose from, and falling interest rates last year. Everywhere is affordable with a 20% deposit (except Queenstown). Twenty-one of the 28 urban areas we monitor were affordable with a 10% deposit.

ACTIVITY INDICATORS DIP ON INFLATIONARY SIGNALS
The ANZ Business Confidence survey found the December improvement basically has held into January, with a worrying ‘but’ – a resurgence of inflationary pressures. ‘We are forecasting the first OCR hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it’ll come earlier than that’, ANZ noted.

STILL LOOKING FOR A TRADE SURPLUS AFTER 25 YEARS
Our exports reached more that $80.7 bln in 2025, up +14.0% from the 2024 year and a first above $80 bln for any calendar year. But imports hit $82.9 bln, up +5.4% from 2024, so a deficit of -$2.2 bln. That was its lowest annual merchandise trade deficit since . In December alone exports were matched by imports at about $7.6 bln, both up about +14.8% from the same month in 2024. Excluding the pandemic distortions, this was the lowest merchandise trade deficit since 2015. With the same exception, the last time we recorded a December year trade surplus was in 2001 (+$1.0 bln)

ITS TOUGH LEASING COMMERCIAL PREMISES
Regular readers will know that we monitor ‘for lease’ listings for commercial property. They rose to a high at the end of November and have dipped minorly since. As at the end of January 2026 they are nationally +12.7% higher than at the same time in 2025. They are are +32% higher in the Manukau section of Auckland but only +6.2% higher in the much larger Auckland Central market. Other notable annual shifts are Tauranga, up +24.6%, Wellington, up +15.8%, Christchurch, up +5.8%. The tightest market seems to be Queenstown.

STUNNING CHANGE IN HIGH-VALUE BORROWER BEHAVIOUR
December brought a big surge in bank switching by mortgage borrowers, shifting $5.8 bln between banks in a month. The latest Reserve Bank figures show this massive spike in change of loan provider in the month, with record amounts being moved and a record share of the total new monthly mortgage market.

HIGH BORROWING BUT RESPONSIBLE REPAYMENT HABITS
In the year to December 2025, the total mortgage interest paid was $21.3 bln, almost exactly double the amounts paid in the 2022 year ($12.0 bln). We now owe $387.5 bln for loans on housing (which has a current market value of  a $1.6 tln). Borrowers paid back not only $29.7 bln in scheduled repayments, but added another +60% to that be also repaying another $17.8 bln in excess repayments (not to be confused with full repayments).

FSC CHAIR CHANGE
The Financial Services Council has appointed a new Independent Chair, David McLean, who succeeds Rob Flannagan following more than ten years in the role.

PLAYED OUR QUIZ YET THIS WEEK?
Our quiz has been updated for this week’s edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 SLIPS AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today. That puts it down -1.6% over the past five working days. It is up +3.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +2.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.4% so far today. Tower, Meridian, Hallensteins, and Spark are the top gainers as Investore, Tourism Holdings, Fletcher, and Stride Property are the main decliners.

ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL NZGB TENDER
At today’s NZ Government Bond tender, there were 134 bids worth $1.85 bln for the $450 mln on offer in three maturities. 59 bids were successful into a rising yield situation.

PLAYING A DIFFERENT GAME
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (their central bank) held monetary policy steady for a third consecutive review today, maintaining the slope, width, and center of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, as markets expected. However, they lifted their inflation outlook for the coming year to 1% to 2%, up from the 2025 forecast range of 0.5% to1.5%. Actual CPI inflation in Singapore came in at +0.9% in December.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end but lower for longer durations today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.80%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.24% and down -3 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps from yesterday, now at 4.61%. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Wednesday’s rate up +3 bps at 4.63%. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.25%.

EQUITIES GENERALLY LOWER
The local equity market is now up down -0.7% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.4% today so far and Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 leaking earlier gains to finish unchanged.

OIL RISES – IN USD
The oil price in the US is up +US$1 at just over US$63.50/bbl while the international Brent price now at US$69/bbl, again shifted by USD weakness.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
Secondary market activity has seen very few transactions and the price is unchanged at $34.50/NZU today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD PUSHES UP BIGLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$322/oz and now at US$5539/oz and a +6.2% daily gain. Silver up +US$3.50 at US$117/oz, and platinum is now at US$2704/oz, up +US$39 from this time yesterday. Aluminium is still rising.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday at just on 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.7 and up another +30 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$88,436 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.1%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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