50m agoTue 16 Sep 2025 at 9:51pmMarket snapshotASX futures: -0.3% to 8,841 pointsASX 200 (Tuesday close): +0.3% to 8,878 pointsAustralian dollar: +0.3% at 66.85 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (-0.3%), S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq (-0.1%)Europe: FTSE (-0.9%), DAX (-1.8%), Stoxx 600 (-1.1%)Spot gold: +0.3% to $US3,690/ounceOil (Brent crude): +1.6% to $US 68.50/barrelIron ore: +0.7% to $US106.30/tonneBitcoin: +1.3% at $US116,913

Prices current at around 7:40am AEST

10m agoTue 16 Sep 2025 at 10:30pmTrump risks plunging the US into recession, says economics professor Justin Wolfers

Donald Trump says there’s “NO INFLATION!!!” in America.

But the official data doesn’t lie. It shows consumer prices rose 2.9% in the year to August, well above the US Federal Reserve’s target.

This is putting the central bank in a difficult position, says the University of Michigan’s economics professor, Justin Wolfers.

If the US president acts “in a relatively sensible way, I think there’s a roughly one-in-four chance of a recession over the next year,” he told The Business host Alicia Barry.

But if the president “were to lean in to full-throttle Trumpism, trying to take away the independence of the Fed, getting our trading partners offside, destroying the bureaucracy, and instituting a form of crony capitalism, I think the chances of a recession over the next 12 months [will] skyrocket maybe as much as 70 per cent,” he added.

You can listen to Professor Wolfers’s full insights here:

Loading…23m agoTue 16 Sep 2025 at 10:17pmThousands of people contest wills as house prices soar

A will can offer peace of mind for families before the death of a loved one, but the process can also go horribly wrong.

Those who seek to be beneficiaries of a will may need legal assistance.

Some lawyers say the rate of people dying intestate (ie without a valid will) has risen to around 60%, which is very high.

More people are contesting wills to try to get a slice of a deceased relative’s estate. That’s because there’s a lot of money tied up in these estates, with house prices rising and a boom in the share market.

For more, here’s the story by David Taylor (again)!

Loading…36m agoTue 16 Sep 2025 at 10:04pmCashrewards’s abrupt closure leaves shoppers many unanswered questions

Cashrewards — a loyalty program that once had 2.5 million Australians in its database — has left many shoppers stunned after its abrupt shutdown last week.

The cashback website pays back its members a percentage of the purchase price in cash after they shop in its partnered retailers.

At this stage, we don’t know why Cashrewards closed down.

Neither Cashrewards, nor ANZ Bank’s venture capital fund 1835i, which owns the cashback app, have made any public statements.

According to the Australian Financial Review, Cashrewards was failing to meet ANZ’s expectations, amid a wider review of the bank’s performance and profitability by its new chief executive, Nuno Matos.

For more, here’s the story by Yiying Li:

47m agoTue 16 Sep 2025 at 9:54pmThere’s a 100 per cent chance the US will cut interest rates tomorrow, according to markets

The world’s largest central bank, the Federal Reserve, has begun its two-day meeting — and it will almost certainly lead to US interest rates being cut by 0.25 percentage points.

Money markets are 100% certain that will be the outcome, after a months-long bullying campaign by Donald Trump (who has repeatedly called Fed chair Jerome Powell a “major loser”, while trying to fire the bank’s governor, Lisa Cook, for alleged mortgage fraud on very flimsy grounds).

However, it’s likely the Fed would be cutting rates anyway, regardless of the US president’s attempts to interfere with the bank’s independence.

The latest economic figures from America are pointing to a major slowdown in the jobs market, with hiring slowing to a crawl and a big uptick in workers filing for unemployment benefits.

This will probably force the hand of the Fed, which is currently more concerned about a slowing economy rather than the recent rebound in inflation.

(To be fair, they’re worried about both scenarios. So whether they lift or cut interest rates could produce bad results for the US economy, especially if it enters into a period of stagflation, which we’ll get into later).

For more, here’s an interesting analysis piece by my colleague David Taylor:

50m agoTue 16 Sep 2025 at 9:50pm

ASX to follow Wall Street lower ahead of US rate cut decision

Good morning, and welcome to the ABC’s finance blog! I’ll be your guide for the next few hours.

Wall Street’s main indexes fell slightly from their record highs, as investors decided to take profits (cash out) ahead of the US interest rate decision (expected tomorrow at 4am AEST).

Our local share market is likely to start its day marginally lower, with ASX futures down 0.3%.

However, the Australian dollar has risen to a 10-month high of around 66.85 US cents.

That’s because the US greenback has weakened on expectations interest rates are about to be slashed in America.

Spot gold, meanwhile, continues to hit new record highs. It briefly went above $US3,700 per ounce overnight.

Basically, when rates are coming down, it increases the attractiveness of holding assets that don’t pay interest, like precious metals.

Also, it’s because there’s a lot of “safe haven” demand for gold due to heightened levels of geopolitical conflict and concerns about the health of the US economy, tariffs and trillions of dollars in government debt.