Taken together, the trend suggests population growth will provide more support to housing demand and rental markets through 2026, particularly in main centres that typically attract new migrants.
Implications for the RBNZ and mortgage rates
ASB stresses that migration data are volatile, but warns “there is a risk that the pace of recovery (and flow-through to spending demand) may be too fast for the economy to grow without generating additional inflation.”
That could complicate the Reserve Bank’s efforts to bring inflation back to target and may reduce scope for early cuts to the official cash rate.
RBNZ has struck a similar tone in its latest forecasts, noting in its February 2026 Monetary Policy Statement that migration has eased from its 2023 highs but still “supports capacity and demand” in the economy, and warning that stronger‑than‑assumed net inflows could keep inflation pressures elevated for longer than expected.
Tourism rebound adds to demand backdrop
Tourism is also strengthening. Tanuvasa notes that “tourism continues to improve, with short-term visitor arrivals reaching 3.52 million in the year to January 2026,” still just under 10% below pre‑COVID peaks. Australians account for nearly 90% of the annual growth in visitor numbers, while higher‑spending US tourists are also increasing.