Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are changes to report today from TSB and the Co-operative Bank. There are changes also from China Construction Bank, WBS, and the Police Credit Union. We have a review of the situation and prospects here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are changes to TD rates today by the Co-operative Bank, WBS and the Police Credit Union. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DOUBLE WHAMMY
There was a sharp reversal in home loan affordability for first home buyers in February, after a double whammy rise of lower quartile house prices and mortgage interest rates in the month.

BETTER
Fonterra has raised its farmgate milk price again and announced an increased profit. It is now forecasting a milk price for farmers of $9.70 and sees dividends totaling 40c a share. Interestingly, Fonterra’s payout indication is above every main bank economist forecast now.

WORSE
Fitch has adjusted its credit rating outlook on New Zealand’s sovereign situation to Negative from Stable but it reaffirmed its underlying rating at ‘AA+’. They say driving the shift is because meaningful debt reduction is becoming ‘more difficult to envisage’ and the upcoming election adds uncertainty.

STABLE (?)
MBIE is now reporting fuel stock and fuel shipment data two times a week. Updates are published on Monday and Wednesday afternoons. The latest Monday one is here for Wednesday, March 18.

DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week’s edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.0% so far today. It is heading for a -2.3% weekly drop, and down -2.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +6.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.9% so far today.  There are only 21 gainers across the whole NZX equity board, led by the Warehouse, EBPS, Vista and F&P Healthcare. But there are 64 decliners, led by Gentrack, Ryman, Genesis and AirNZ.

ALMOST $90 BLN TRADED IN ONE WEEK
Last week, the NZGB secondary market turned over $86.9 bln, the most in 2026, and the fourth highest week ever. (The highest weeks were the three weeks November 28 to December 12.)

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SWAP RATES JUMP
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be sharply higher today on building global uncertainty and not helped by the Fitch downgrade. We have seen rises of +10 bps for the one year, so far, and more for two and three year terms. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bps at 2.52% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +10 bps at 5.10%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also up +4 bps at 2.31% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.88%, up +12 bps from this morning. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Friday rate up +5 bps at 4.73. The UST 10yr yield is up +22 bps from this morning at 4.42%, but +16 bps from Friday.

EQUITIES VERY NEGATIVE
The local equity market has fallen -0.7% in Monday trade so far, now to a seven month low. The ASX200 is down -0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Monday down -3.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -2.9% and Shanghai is down -1.7%. Singapore is also down -1.6%. Wall Street futures are confusing about how the S&P500 will open tomorrow.

OIL FIRMS
American oil prices have firmed slightly, up +50 USc with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is holding up at US$112/bbl. Things are still fluid and confusing in the Persian Gulf.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS (LOW)
There have been few trades so far today on the secondary market, the price is holding at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen another -US$87/oz and now back at US$4403/oz. Silver is down to US$66.50/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is down less than -10 bps from this morning against the USD, now at just over 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62 and essentially unchanged from this morning..

BITCOIN EASES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,896 and down -1.2% from this morning’s open. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.7%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».