Inflation to hit 5% in year to June, RBA predicts
Patrick Commins
The Reserve Bank says oil at around $US100 will push inflation to about 5% in the year to June, or 0.75 percentage points higher than expected in February.
The international oil price benchmark, Brent crude, has traded at $US100 or above since the 17 March rate decision, and last fetched about $US109 a barrel.
The RBA board decided to hike rates earlier this month, in a 5-4 split decision that spoke to a dissenting view among a big minority of members that it would have been better to wait a few weeks to better gauge the potential fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran.
In the end, a majority believed the Middle East conflict was overwhelmingly an inflationary shock that threatened to broaden out into other prices beyond fuel.
Reserve Bank of Australia. Photograph: EyeOfPaul/Getty Images
All agreed, however, that rates would have needed to go up sooner rather than later, given inflation was already running too hot before the start of hostilities.
The minutes push back against some predictions that we have three more rate hikes ahead of us.
Members agreed:
double quotation markThat it was not possible to predict the future path for the cash rate target with any confidence, given the high degree of uncertainty around the breadth and duration of the current conflict in the Middle East.
The minutes noted “a longer conflict could have a material bearing on both inflation and economic activity. Members therefore acknowledged that future policy decisions would require the board to balance its two objectives carefully” – the two objectives being low and stable inflation, and full employment.
Updated at 21.26 EDT
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Israeli ambassador defends investigation process over Frankcom’s death
Israel’s ambassador to Australia says he is not aware that the investigation into the Israeli drone strike that killed Zomi Frankcom and six aid workers in Gaza has been shelved or that there will be no prosecution.
At the National Press Club, Hillel Newman defends the Israeli government’s actions and says Australian investigator, Mark Binskin, who was sent by the Albanese government, delivered a report that found “the attack was not intentional”.
Binskin’s review, handed to the government, found the IDF strike on the World Central Kitchen volunteers was the result of “serious failures to follow procedures”.
Newman says:
double quotation markYou say it’s been shelved, I don’t know what basis, I have not … I have never heard it’s been shelved. It could be I have not been updated, I will check.
As far as I know they have not come to final conclusions not because they delay, there are legal cases in Israel that go on for years … as far as I know it [has] not come to that conclusion yet but I will check again.
Newman says Binskin was “given full access at the time to what they had available and he drew up the conclusions together”. But Binskin has said he was never shown the drone audio during the investigation.
Journalist Anna Henderson pushes Newman on why the drone audio was not shown to Binskin and whether he will commit to it being released.
He won’t make the commitment.
The Israeli ambassador to Australia, Hillel Newman, at the National Press Club in Canberra. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
double quotation mark[It] could be intelligence. I was not there … I would have to check [why] it is not possible to release that video information.
Last month, prime minister Anthony Albanese told Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, Australia wanted to see transparency over the investigation and “any appropriate criminal charges”.
Updated at 22.57 EDT
Coalition is ‘only party fixated on’ increasing size of parliament, Farrell says
Don Farrell has refuted claims the government is working on increasing the size of parliament while the fuel crisis across the country worsens.
The opposition held a press conference earlier today, accusing Farrell of “belling the cat” on the issue, after he told National Press Club yesterday he hadn’t given up on increasing the number of representatives.
In a statement, Farrell says he is awaiting the findings of the joint standing committee on electoral matters, which holds a post election review every term. He will “show the committee the respect it deserves of not pre-empting their important work.”
double quotation markThe only party fixated on this enough to have done costings is the Coalition. The government is focused on fuel security and cost of living relief for Australians.
This is clearly not about the policy or issues; it’s about the internal audition for attention in the Coalition.
Trade minister Don Farrell. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAPShare
Updated at 22.23 EDT
‘Israel and Australia stand in the same camp’: Israeli ambassador
Israel’s ambassador to Australia says the two nations are “close allies”, with the relationship “deeply rooted in history”.
Hillel Newman is speaking to the National Press Club, his first address since taking on the role earlier this year.
The diplomatic relationship between the two nations has faced some strain over the last two years, including Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu publicly criticising the Australian prime minister for recognising Palestinian statehood last year, and accused Albanese of “betraying” Israel.
Newman says:
double quotation markIsrael and Australia stand in the same camp. Of moderates, modern democracies that value human rights and uphold democratic concerns. That has long characterised the relationship between our two countries. Our connection is deeply rooted in history and founded on shared values. It is only natural, for Australia and Israel to be close allies.
We share the same values, we share the same threats, we must stand together and defend our values.
Israeli ambassador Hillel Newman speaks at the National Press Club in Canberra. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAPShare
Updated at 22.07 EDT
Parliament begins to debate three-month fuel excise cut
The House of Representatives is debating the government’s bill to halve the fuel excise for 3 months.
Tony Burke moved to suspend standing orders (which the government was easily able to do with a majority in the chamber), to bring on the bill for debate, and bring it to a vote by 5:30pm tonight.
It means it can then be debated in the Senate tomorrow and passed on the last sitting day until May.
Earlier, Jim Chalmers defended the measure, calling it “responsible” and temporary cost of living relief.
Fuel pumps at a service station in Melbourne. Photograph: Morgan Hancock/Getty ImagesShare
Updated at 21.56 EDT
Tom McIlroy
PM says he is engaging with world leaders, including Trump, over Middle East conflict
Anthony Albanese says he talking to world leaders regularly about the conflict in the Middle East and the growing global energy shock.
The prime minister told Labor MPs that the foreign minister, Penny Wong, was talking with her counterparts regularly as well.
In a caucus meeting at Parliament House, Albanese again pointed out that the US had three stated objectives for the war in Iran, including degrading missile capability, stopping Tehran getting a nuclear weapon and regime change in the country.
Albanese believes the first two objectives have been achieved, while the third “hasn’t happened”. He said:
double quotation markHistory shows the difficulty of something like that ever occurring.
Albanese said there was great uncertainty about the war, including as other Gulf countries are attacked.
Prime minister Anthony Albanese. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/ReutersShare
Updated at 21.41 EDT
Inflation to hit 5% in year to June, RBA predictsPatrick Commins
The Reserve Bank says oil at around $US100 will push inflation to about 5% in the year to June, or 0.75 percentage points higher than expected in February.
The international oil price benchmark, Brent crude, has traded at $US100 or above since the 17 March rate decision, and last fetched about $US109 a barrel.
The RBA board decided to hike rates earlier this month, in a 5-4 split decision that spoke to a dissenting view among a big minority of members that it would have been better to wait a few weeks to better gauge the potential fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran.
In the end, a majority believed the Middle East conflict was overwhelmingly an inflationary shock that threatened to broaden out into other prices beyond fuel.
Reserve Bank of Australia. Photograph: EyeOfPaul/Getty Images
All agreed, however, that rates would have needed to go up sooner rather than later, given inflation was already running too hot before the start of hostilities.
The minutes push back against some predictions that we have three more rate hikes ahead of us.
Members agreed:
double quotation markThat it was not possible to predict the future path for the cash rate target with any confidence, given the high degree of uncertainty around the breadth and duration of the current conflict in the Middle East.
The minutes noted “a longer conflict could have a material bearing on both inflation and economic activity. Members therefore acknowledged that future policy decisions would require the board to balance its two objectives carefully” – the two objectives being low and stable inflation, and full employment.
Updated at 21.26 EDT
Scrapping “unfair” junior rates a win for low-paid workers, Greens say
In another perhaps unsurprising move, Greens senator Barbara Pocock says scrapping “unfair” junior rates is a big win.
She says they guarantee an “endless supply of cheap labour”:
double quotation markLow-paid workers are already facing an uphill battle as wages have failed to keep up with the inflation.
The Greens believe workers’ pay should reflect their skills, not their age. We need to continue to raise the wages of under-18s who do the same work for less pay.
Updated at 21.21 EDT
Fair Work Commission decision “adds to cost pressures”, retailers say
The Australian Retail Council (ARC), perhaps unsurprisingly, is not entirely happy with today’s Fair Work Commission decision to get rid of junior wages for those aged 18 and up.
It says the move will add significant costs to businesses already under pressure.
ARC chief executive officer, Chris Rodwell, says junior rates have served the nation well “for generations”:
double quotation markThey recognise that younger workers often have little or no workplace experience and help employers, particularly small businesses, give young people their first opportunity.
Crucially, junior rates for workers aged 17 and under will remain in place. That’s important. Early work experience is critical, and we cannot afford to make it harder for young Australians to get their first job.
Customers use a self-serve checkout counter at Coles supermarket. Photograph: Ye Myo Khant/SOPA Images/ShutterstockShare
Updated at 21.18 EDT
Benita Kolovos
Allan hops on “temporary” free public transport
The premier spoke from the Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre before boarding a train at Parkville station to Town Hall to mark the first day of free public transport for the next month. Jacinta Allan said it was a “temporary measure” to help ease financial pressures on households:
double quotation markFree public transport will [have] a broader benefit to everyone. It’ll save people money – we expect that it will save regular users of our public transport system over $220 for the month of April … and it’s going to take pressure off the pump, which leaves that fuel available for others in our community.
Whilst we can’t control global oil prices, as Victorian premier, I am determined to do everything that I can to ease cost of living pressures.
Asked whether she would extend the measure if the war continues to rage on, Allan said the government would “continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East and continue to look at the practical, sensible ways we can continue to help Victorians households”.
She said authorities would also be keeping a close eye on public transport and roads data but said the network had capacity to deal with additional commuters.
Updated at 21.04 EDT
Benita Kolovos
Allan takes aim at “bitter infighting” within Liberals
The Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, also held a press conference this morning (see post below about Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s presser), where she had a crack at the Liberal party’s disunity – despite facing tensions within her own Labor ranks.
She said the preselection saga demonstrated the “bitter infighting” within the Liberal party:
double quotation markIf you can’t run your own party, how on earth can you put yourself forward to run the state? Victorians can see that the Liberal party, being the weak, extreme, divided outfit that they are, are only focused on themselves.
Well, as Victorian premier, I’m focused every minute of every day on Victorians who need their government helping them to make life easier and more affordable.
Victorian premier Jacinta Allan. Photograph: Jay Kogler/AAPShare
Updated at 21.06 EDT
Most children haven’t been removed from social media, despite federal ban
Josh Butler
The eSafety Commission says the federal government’s ban on under-16s accessing social media is not working as well as had been hoped, with a survey finding nearly a third of young people still had social media, and that nearly 70% of children with accounts on major platforms had not been removed.
In a compliance report on the legislation, more than three months on from the law coming into force, eSafety said “despite overall reductions in account ownership, a substantial proportion of children under 16 retained accounts on age-restricted platforms”. It said:
double quotation markOf the parents who reported their child had an account on each platform prior to 10 December 2025, around 7 in 10 reported that their child still had an account on Facebook (63.6%), Instagram (69.1%), Snapchat (69.4%), and TikTok (69.3%). Around three in 10 reported that their child no longer had an account. One in two of these parents (48.5%) reported that their child still had an account on YouTube following the age restrictions coming into effect.
A young person uses their mobile phone to access social media. Photograph: Dean Lewins/AAP
Prior to the ban, the survey respondents said about 49.7% of their kids had social media; post-ban, that was down to 31.3%. The Albanese government has long conceded that not all kids would be immediately removed from their accounts, but that the laws would reduce the number and help parents set their own household rules.
As we reported earlier, eSafety is “actively investigating potential non-compliance” with the ban by Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram and YouTube. The eSafety report said the most common reason kids still had social media was that they hadn’t been asked by the platform to verify their age, with 67% of parents listing this as the main reason.
But the report also noted that age verification technology is not perfect, and makes mistakes. The government was not prescriptive about what methods the platforms should use, but often pointed to facial scanning as a method to verify age. The eSafety report said facial age estimation is “a popular and effective form of age assurance” but conceded that it “is known to have higher error rates for children near the age threshold of 16 years.”
Communications minister Anika Wells will hold a press conference at 12.30pm.
Updated at 21.02 EDT
PM says Labor focused on fuel ‘supply, supply, supply’Tom McIlroy
Anthony Albanese says uncertainty over the duration of the war in Iran is adding to Australians’ anxiety about price increases and tensions overseas.
Speaking to Labor MPs at Parliament House on Tuesday morning, he said the government was working to shore up fuel supply, even as global energy reliability is being undermined by the war.
“We have been concentrating on supply, supply, supply,” Albanese told the closed-door caucus meeting.
double quotation markPeople are doing it tough. There is uncertainty over the war and uncertainty over how it ends. This is causing understandable anxiety.
The increase in price only adds to this anxiety.
The PM said Australia was viewed as a reliable partner for energy exports in Asia and “expect that reliability to be reciprocated”.
He also said the government wanted to “avoid mandating” fuel purchases. “We’re a nation where we want to look after each other,” he said.
Albanese will address the National Press Club in Canberra on Thursday.
Updated at 21.07 EDT
Australia should support the US to reopen the strait of Hormuz, Taylor says
Jumping back to Angus Taylor’s press conference, he says Australia should be working with world leaders and the US to open up the strait of Hormuz.
double quotation markWhat we all want to see is the strait of Hormuz opened up. Anthony Albanese should be working with leaders across the world to do everything we can to support that happening.
And I’ll tell you why that matters, because then you get 20% more oil going on to the global market and prices come down. It’s pretty simple stuff.
When asked exactly what that support should look like, Taylor evades the question and says it’s “pretty simple” that we want fuel prices to go down. He doesn’t say what measures the government should take to reopen the Strait.
Leader of the opposition, Angus Taylor. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAPShare
Updated at 20.44 EDT