22 September 2025 – Indian equities opened cautiously on Monday, with GIFT Nifty ranging between 25,329–25,334 in pre-opening trades, indicating a rather subdued beginning. The market thrust on Friday, when Sensex and Nifty lost their gains after a three-day rally, seems to be sustained amid global uncertainties and home country policy cues.

Friday’s Summary & Domestic Drivers

The Nifty 50 closed at 25,327.05 on Friday, down 96.55 points (0.38%), while Sensex fell 387.73 points (0.47%) to 82,626.23. There was selling seen in banking, FMCG, and IT stocks, although investor demand in the sectors of realty, PSU banks, power, and oil & gas limited the losses. For the week, despite the fall, both the major indices saw modest gains of about 1%.

Global Cues and External Risks

Globally, the recent reduction of 25 basis points in the Fed has affected expectations. While that easing will be positive for emerging markets like India, traders now look forward to upcoming U.S. Fed speeches and macro data (i.e., core PCE, flash PMI) for direction.

One of the issues that has emerged is the imposition of a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications by the U.S. government from September 21, which could hit Indian IT firms and temper their market performance.

Currency markets show some strain: the rupee will open softer, led by U.S. dollar strength, increased yields, and foreign investor risk aversion.

Gold and other commodities are at near-record high levels, reflecting safe-haven demand.

Institutional Flows and Domestic Policy Triggers

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers on Friday (at about ₹390 crore), while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) participated more heavily at ₹2,105 crore. These flows reflect domestic investor confidence is comparatively stronger in spite of global cues turning cautious.

Policy-wise, markets also expect implementation of new GST rates on September 22 and the onset of Navratri festivities, which usually underpin consumption. India-US trade negotiations and a breakthrough in that direction are another critical domestic trigger.

Future Outlook

With GIFT Nifty below 25,360, markets are poised for a steady-to-weakish opening. The near term will be dictated by the manner in which Fed officials nuance their comments in upcoming speeches, whether policy tweaks (GST rationalisation) find their way into visible demand, and how export-and IT-facing industries react to foreign headwinds like the H-1B visa fee hike. Investors may prefer defensive and domestic-facing stocks over those with global cycle exposure.

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