Mark Lister, investment director with Craigs Investment Partners, said a modest day was expected after the excitement of Wednesday’s action and market strength.
“Australia is flat, Japan is down a bit, and US futures are pointing to a down day (overnight) on the markets,” he said. “It’s a case of markets looking for further evidence of sustained de-escalation (in the Middle East) and oil prices staying where they are or falling further.
“While optimism is high that we have passed the worst, it’s still a fragile situation for markets to watch this space. Hopefully, we will see more stability in the markets, and investors should be happy with flat days after all the volatility over the last five to six weeks.”
There was a ceasefire uncertainty with Israel continuing to attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and saying that wasn’t part of the agreement.
Iran said three clauses in the agreement had already been violated and oil tanker traffic through the Hormuz Strait was halted after two tankers were allowed through earlier.
But talks between the US and Iran will take place in Pakistan this weekend.
Before all that, Wall Street had one of its better days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1325 points or 2.85% to 47,909.92 – its best trading day since April last year, when US President Donald Trump first backed down from the severity of his initial trade tariffs.
The S&P 500 increased 2.51% to 6782.81 points, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2.8% to 22,634.99. Rocket Lab was up 4.16% to US$69.08 (NZ$118.38).
The oil price increased slightly, with Brent Crude trading at US$97.13 a barrel, up 2.5%.
Lister said the oil price was key to the Reserve Bank’s actions later this year. The central bank held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% on Wednesday.
“I’d like to think the Reserve Bank sticks to plan A with no rate rises this year. For this to happen, we need to see oil prices come back further and stay low.
“There are so many unknowns, including a greater chance of rate hikes this year – most are picking September for a potential first one. But I don’t think that will do us a lot of favours,” Lister said.
“The economy is still fragile. It doesn’t feel like the economy is strong enough to handle another rate-hiking cycle.
“I was hoping our market would gain 5-10% this year, but that was dependent on the economic recovery. The recovery is at risk depending on where the oil price goes,” he said.
Local stocks
There were a few major moves on the local market. Freightways declined 35c or 2.64% to $12.90; fuel terminal operator Channel Infrastructure was down 10c or 3.28% to $2.95; Vista Group increased 6c or 3.49% to $1.78; and The Warehouse rose 4c or 5.88% to 72c.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare was up 37c to $39.33; Infratil increased 20c to $12; a2 Milk gained 14c to $11.35; Mercury Energy added 6c to $6.50; and Briscoe Group improved 10c or 2.37% to $4.50.
Ebos Group was down 26c to $22.75; Ryman Healthcare decreased 5c or 2.29% to $2.13; Gentrack declined 20c or 2.99% to $6.50; Vulcan Steel fell 29c or 4.06% to $6.85; and Tower shed 6.5c or 3.28% to $1.91.
Other decliners were PGG Wrightson down 4c or 1.83% to $2.15; Bremworth shedding 2c or 2.94% to 66c; Third Age Health decreasing 9c or 1.84% to $4.80; Scales Corp falling 19c or 3.07% to $6; and Air NZ down 1.5c or 3.16% to 46c.
California-based electronics company Bourns now has an 80.36% stake in takeover target Rakon, with the offer at $1.55 a share closing on May 7. Rakon’s share price was down 0.005c to $1.49.
Santana Minerals, down 3.5c or 3.93% to 85.5c, has raised a further $17.04m and completes a $157m placement.
New Talisman Goldmines, down 0.001c or 6.25% to 1.5c, has raised $1.3m after the shortfall from the rights offer was placed, fetching a further $27,842.
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