More recent figures point to a cooling trend. National home prices lifted 0.3% in March, the slowest monthly rise since November 2024, aside from December.
Even with momentum easing, values remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Home prices are about 45% higher than before the pandemic, and in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, values have roughly doubled over five years.
ANZ’s outlook suggests the market’s divergence may narrow as affordability pressures intensify. The bank expects Sydney and Melbourne to record falls of 0.7% and 1.7% in 2026, before outperforming in 2027.
By contrast, growth in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide is projected to slow markedly by 2027, to 1.5%, 1.4% and 0.2% respectively. That would be a material step down from 2025 outcomes of 12.8% in Perth, 14.6% in Brisbane and 17.2% in Adelaide.
Home price growth forecasts: Australian capital cities
City
2025
2026 forecast
2027 forecast
Sydney
6.4%
-0.7%
2.6%
Melbourne
4.5%
-1.7%
2.9%
Brisbane
14.6%
9.7%
1.4%
Adelaide
12.8%
5.7%
0.2%
Perth
17.2%
12.3%
1.5%
Hobart
7.8%
3.7%
0.6%
Canberra
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
Darwin
14.5%
8.0%
2.6%
Source: ANZ
“Sydney and Melbourne markets are showing signs of slowing, and we expect them to underperform in 2026,” said ANZ economist Madeline Dunk. “Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Hobart and Canberra are likely to underperform in 2027 after a period of strong growth across many of the ‘smaller’ capitals.”