ise in dollar terms, but warned higher gas prices and rising goods prices could keep volumes flat – a setup that can cool inflation without a big growth hit. Meanwhile, sector moves did most of the talking: healthcare and financials rose, but energy and telecoms fell, limiting the index’s upside.
Why should I care?
For markets: Strong enough to wait.
If households keep spending in real terms, the Bank of Canada can afford to hold interest rates steady while it looks for clearer signs that inflation is cooling. That tends to be a headwind for rate-sensitive areas like housing and some consumer stocks, even if banks benefit from higher rates for longer. And because the TSX is packed with commodity producers, oil and gas prices can still overpower “good” or “bad” domestic data on any given day – as Friday’s energy drop showed.
The bigger picture: A calmer economy can still feel tight.
Even if the topline numbers look decent, many households are running into the same pinch: higher mortgage payments when loans reset and everyday costs that don’t fall as fast as inflation does. If gas prices stay elevated, more of people’s budgets gets pulled toward essentials, which can slow discretionary spending later in the year. For policymakers, that’s the tricky sweet spot – demand eases and inflation pressure fades, but growth doesn’t necessarily reaccelerate.