“We are powerfully imprisoned by the terms in which we have been conducted to think.”
― R. Buckminster Fuller

The embrace of fossil fuels puts America on the road to economic perdition

The Iran War has shown that relying on fossil fuels for energy is dumb. Especially when there are alternative energy options. Options whose justification does not rely on the truth of global warming. Despite the best efforts of political and corporate naysayers, renewable energy is the future in any circumstance. And the only question is who will reap the financial reward of looking forward.

Sadly, too many Americans, misled by the politicians they trust, do not understand that. Consequently, the Republican rejection of renewable energy will weigh heavily on America’s GDP prospects. It is the atavistic philosophy of those who favored whale oil over kerosene and buggies over cars.

The reader may notice the irony of lumping those who now cling to fossil fuels with those who opposed them back in the day. However, time and conditions change. And success flows to those willing to adapt to new realities.

The cost of fossil fuel is more than just the price paid for it

As industrial countries’ material output burgeoned after WWII and rising economic tides transformed Asian farm economies into manufacturing powerhouses, energy demand skyrocketed. The largest source of power remained carbon-based fossil fuels. Sadly, this came with a cost. Climatologists overwhelmingly agree that burning carbon-based fossil fuels is leading to global warming. Further, they argue that global warming’s effects will lie somewhere on a spectrum stretching from severe to catastrophic to existential.

The good news is we have options. For millennia, we didn’t have much choice in how to generate energy. If you wanted power, you had to burn stuff (coal, oil, gas). Then we discovered we could harness running water to run mills. Later, we used dams to generate electricity. Nuclear power followed. And now we have technologies that harness the power of the sun, wind, and tides.

The bad news is that there is too much money to be made by clinging to the old way. And when there is profit to be made, there are politicians for rent willing to enact laws that lock in that profit, regardless of the consequences. To salve their conscience and make their pro-plutocratic position palatable to the people, these expedient legislators deny the science. And claim that either climate change is alarmism. Or better yet, it doesn’t exist. However, that is still a poor justification for promoting traditional energy generation.

Alternative energy is the future, even in the absence of global warming

Even if global warming isn’t the future, fossil fuels are the past. If anyone needs evidence for that proposition, the Iran War has provided it. Trump thought America’s nearly trillion-dollar-a-year military would crush Iran like a bug. It’s been two months, and Iran is still standing. The administration has traded bombing campaigns for assurances that the war is all over bar the applause. However, the “we won” rhetoric is merely vacuous bravado, desperately trying to cover up a mission unaccomplished.

Some may see this latest failure of US foreign policy as just more of the same. From the Korean War through the Afghanistan conflict (except for the First Gulf War), the results have not matched the rhetoric. However, the Iran War has ramifications that were absent in America’s previous military adventurism. The world oil supply teeters as the Strait of Hormuz remains a no-go for oil tankers.

Trump and his apologists claim this has nothing to do with the US. They say America has all the oil it needs. The Hormuz imbroglio is therefore a European-Asian problem. Nice try. No cigar. Oil is fungible. The people who own it will sell it to whoever offers them the most. There is no American vs non-American price for petroleum. Energy prices rising anywhere are prices rising everywhere.

Putting numbers to the problem

The economics of energy are complex. But the price of driving a car is a useful simplification. Both drivers and non-drivers are aware of the price of gasoline when it skyrockets. Bearing that in mind …

When the war started, the average retail price of regular gasoline in the US was under $3 a gallon. On Wednesday, even though the Iran War is on hold, the price is $4.23. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. The future price of wholesale gasoline has risen from $1.87 a gallon before the war to $3.75 on Wednesday. That makes $5 gas at the pump almost a lock. The only tool the administration has available is to eliminate the 18.4¢ per gallon federal excise tax. That would be a modest 4% reduction. A small fraction of the increased cost they are currently paying. And the government would have to find different money to maintain the federal highways.

Alternative energy’s greatest asset

Renewable energy does not require the energy source to be transported. And it is universal. Sun and wind are global. And most countries have at least some tidal waters. As a result, almost no country needs to be beholden to another for energy.

Alternative energy’s biggest liability

The sun doesn’t always shine. The wind can stop blowing. As yet, we do not have the energy storage technology to fill in the gaps. However, that is not a long-term negative. Leó Szilárd first hypothesized the existence of energy generated by a nuclear chain reaction in 1933. By 1951, the first nuclear power plant was operating.

It is worth noting that achievement was helped by the exigencies of WWII, necessitating America’s push to develop a nuclear weapon. It would be a fitting historical echo if the Iran War created a race to develop energy storage technology. It’s not as if the money isn’t available.

On Wednesday, the Pentagon announced the Iran War had already cost the taxpayer at least $25 billion (many will imagine some undercounting) in military expenses alone. Add to that the additional costs consumers paid for gas and heating oil. As well as the extra paid to cover increased shipping costs. And then consider what would have happened if we had spent that money on developing battery technology. At the very least, we would have some return, if not a complete solution.

The cost of doing something is only one part of the equation. We must add the cost of not doing something else.

The financial reason to invest in alternative energy

America’s success has been driven by technology. In 1940, an isolationist America was not ready to fight. By 1945, US war production of newly invented weapons had increased the nation’s GDP by 91% in five years. Since then, tech-rich consumer goods, space technology spinoffs, and computing have helped drive the economy. Now the rise of AI will continue the trend.

But America risks losing its primacy by clinging to 20th-century energy generation. Worse, our competitors aren’t sitting around.

Every year, the US spends $1.6 trillion on energy. That number is going to go up, especially as more data centers come online. AI already uses 8% of America’s electricity. The number is escalating. A big question is who will benefit from the increase?

China has seen the light. Clean energy manufacturing and investment added $1.9 trillion to the nation’s economy in 2024. Exports of EVs, lithium batteries, and solar equipment rose by one-quarter in 2025, accounting for 5% of China’s total goods exports. Domestically, China produces three times as much renewable energy as the US, despite having less energy demand (for now).

America has a choice. Fight for a larger piece of a fast-growing pie. Or cling to the old ways and, at the very least, hope a war doesn’t spike the price of petroleum. The US did not become the world’s dominant economy by standing pat. If you want to win you have to get in the game.