Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ICBC has raised its 18 month, 2 yr and 3 yr fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Sharesies has upped its on-call saver by +30 bps, now at 2.30%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

‘MERGER’ (OR TAKEOVER?)
Heartland Bank has proposed a take-over of TSB, but partly funded by investment by TSB’s community foundation shareholder. There are many shareholder and regulatory approvals required, so it is unlikely to proceed before the end of 2026 if all those agreements are forthcoming. If it happens, that will scale the new bank up to just a bit smaller than Rabobank. Fitch has placed Heartland on ‘ratings watch positive‘ after the announcement.

MOVING TO THE SHADOWS INSIDE THE FMA
The FMA is a step closer to taking over the regulatory responsibility for the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act 2003 (CCCFA) from the Commerce Commission. Touted as a “a more streamlined regulatory environment for the financial services sector” but is likely to get tied up in an industry-focused bureaucracy rather than a consumer-focused advocate. A retrograde step, but one the financial services industry has been pushing for. (We hope this view is wrong, but future events/action will be the judge of that.)

‘TOO SOON’
StatsNZ is saying the Q1-2026 GDP result due on Wednesday, June 18, 2026 is unlikely to reflect very much of the sharp cost increases producers are experiencing in their input costs. That is also reflected in the RBNZ’s Friday update of its GDP Nowcast. For June however, the impact is large – and negative.

NZX50 MOVES LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today, with a weekly rise of +1.6%. It is down -2.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.2% from Friday. Heartland, Gentrack, Kathmandu, and Genesis lead Monday gains while Vista Group, Chorus, Serko and Infratil retreat.

NO LONGER SPLIT
FAMNZ, the Aussie mortgage broker trade association, has given up in New Zealand. That means that FANZ is the primary industry group representing mortgage brokers now.

FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed in volume terms.

Stock, days cover
Number of ships
Petrol
Diesel
Jet fuel
In-country
 
34.4
24.8
32.5
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
3
8.5
0.0
3.2
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
10
15.3
19.4
22.0
Total NZ stock, May 27, 2026
13
58.1
44.2
57.8
 
 
 
 
 
previously reported
 
 
 
 
In-country
 
32.4
21.6
29.7
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
3
0.7
8.0
10.4
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
10
20.0
19.5
13.7
Total NZ stock, May 20, 2026
13
53.1
49.1
53.7
 
 
 
 
 
previously reported
 
 
 
 
In-country
 
34.0
21.7
29.5
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
5
2.1
11.7
13.0
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
8
17.9
12.6
12.5
Total NZ stock, May 17, 2026
13
54.0
46.0
55.0
 
 
 
 
 
previously reported
 
 
 
 
Total NZ stock, May 13, 2026
12
56.2
46.3
47.7
Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026
12
59.0
45.2
50.2
Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026
11
51.0
44.3
54.1
Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026
10
49.3
47.7
55.1
Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026
12
52.6
52.7
58.7
Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026
10
52.8
46.1
49.1
Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026
10
51.8
41.3
45.7
Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026
11
51.2
41.6
47.4
Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026
13
54.0
44.8
51.4
Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026
12
56.3
45.4
47.0
Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026
14
59.7
49.1
50.7
Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026
14
62.6
51.7
53.5
Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026
16
61.9
51.5
50.1
Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026
16
58.7
52.2
46.2
Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026
15
59.3
54.5
50.4
Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026
 
48.7
46.4
53.4
SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update

MINIMUM WAGE RISE
In Australia, the Fair Work Commission has approved a 4.75% minimum wage increase for about 3 mln workers. But those at the very bottom will get an even higher increase of about 6.0%. Their National Minimum Wage applies only to persons in the national industrial relations system who are not covered by a ‘modern’ awards or an enterprise agreement. This will take their minimum to AU$26.44/hr for a 38 hr week. More here.

STILL VOLATILE
Although they are elevated and more than +10% higher than year-ago levels, Australian building consents fell in April from March, down -1.0%. Consents for houses are up +7.5% year-on-year and are the stable part of the market. Apartment and unit housing consents took a dive and maintain the very volatile patterns we have seen since September 2024. NSW is where they are most volatile.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates will probably show a small rise today in a steepening curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.62% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is little-changed at 4.90%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.71%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.65% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.59%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Friday rate down -10 bps at 4.52%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 4.45%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The local equity market is down -0.4% from Friday when it last traded. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.6% at its open. Hong Kong is up +1.4% but Shanghai is little-changed at its open today. Singapore is up +0.8%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +0.3%.

OIL PRICES FIRM
American oil prices are up +US$2 with the WTI benchmark now just under US$92/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just over US$94.50/bbl and up +US$1.50.

CARBON PRICE SOFT
There have been few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has fallen to $51/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4479/oz, down -US$30 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just over US$75/oz and down -US$1.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.8 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN FALLS HARD
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,567 and down -4.3% from this time yesterday and a seven week low. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%. Basically, crypto funds are suffering net outflows.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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