A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar headed for a second day of declines. Treasuries rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield falling three basis points to 4.14%. Gold surged past $3,800 an ounce. Oil fell as expectations that OPEC+ will hike production again in November exacerbated concerns about a glut.
A busy week of data releases will culminate in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, arriving as the Federal Reserve leans toward supporting the jobs market. In the mix is the risk of a US government shutdown amid an impasse in Congress that could delay some releases.
The momentum in markets is “driven by a Goldilocks environment of optimistic growth prospects alongside expectations of a more dovish Fed,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “There might be some adverse effects if the shutdown were to prevail for a longer period, which is not our base case.”
Friday’s payrolls report is expected to show that the US economy added 50,000 jobs in September, in line with the average from the past three months. The jobless rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%.
Before then, Tuesday’s JOLTS report is expected to show a decline in job openings, while Wednesday’s data on company hiring is likely to confirm a further slowdown. Fed policymakers including Christopher Waller, Alberto Musalem and Raphael Bostic are due to speak Monday.