The RBA held rates steady at its mid-June meeting after lifting them three times in 2026 — in February, March, and May — by a combined 0.75 percentage points. Those increases reversed two cuts made in 2025 and pushed the cash rate 0.5 percentage points above its level of 3.85% in June 2025, contributing to a rise in at-risk mortgage holders of 115,000 year-on-year.
The proportion classified as “extremely at risk” — those for whom even interest-only repayments exceed a set threshold of household income — stood at 20.7%, or almost 1.1 million people. Roy Morgan notes the long-term average for this measure over the past two decades is 16.4%. The all-time high of 35.6% was recorded in May 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis.
Mortgage stress – % of owner-occupied mortgage holders
Rolling 3-month average, April 2007 – June 2026
At risk Extremely at risk
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), average interviews per 3-month period April 2007 – June 2026, n=2,897. Base: Australians 14+ with owner-occupied home loan.
Roy Morgan has modelled the potential effect of additional rate rises at the RBA’s August and September meetings. If the cash rate rises to 4.6% in August, the share of at-risk mortgage holders would climb to 31.2%, or 1.65 million people. A further rise to 4.85% in September would push the figure to 31.4%, equivalent to 1.67 million — a level not seen since December 2008.
Mortgage risk projections based on interest rate increases in August and September 2026
% of owner-occupied mortgage holders at risk
At risk Increase in mortgage holders
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), April 2026 – June 2026, n=3,504. Base: Australians 14+ with owner-occupied home loan.
The RBA’s tightening cycle this year was driven by a surge in inflation, with the official annual rate rising from 1.9% in the year to June 2025 to 4.6% in the year to March 2026. More recent data shows some easing, with the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months to May 2026 falling to 4%.
“Mortgage stress is just one indicator of the pressure Australians are under,” said Michele Levine (pictured right), chief executive of Roy Morgan. “Mortgage stress is up five months in a row, interest rates have increased three times already this year, housing prices are coming down in key markets, and the Australian workforce has contracted from earlier this year.”