Looking ahead, we expect industrial activity to be significantly affected by production cuts stemming from the energy crisis caused by low Danube water levels, which are reducing the electricity generation capacity of the Paks Nuclear Power Plant. Accordingly, we expect to see negative figures as early as late July, but even more so in the August data. However, if a complete shutdown at Paks can be avoided, there is a chance that recovery could begin as early as autumn. As there is still scope for manufacturers to increase capacity utilisation, it may be possible to make up for lost production in the remainder of the year once the energy crisis ends. For this reason, despite the current crisis, we believe that the fixed-base index could reach, and even exceed, the monthly average for 2021 by the end of this year. Therefore, the full-year performance for Hungary’s industry could average growth of around 3–4% in 2026. In other words, after three years of industrial recession, the manufacturing sector could once again contribute positively to the overall performance of the economy, despite the Paks crisis.
