The finals format – 1 v 4, 2 v 3, 5 v 8 and 6 v 7 – sends the winners of the first two games straight to the preliminary finals, where they will host a match for a place in the grand final.
The losers get a second chance and will host the winners of the two sudden-death elimination finals, and the winners of those matches go into the grand final qualifier.
Since the current finals format was introduced in 2012, every winner has come from the top four. Only the 2014 Bulldogs, who finished seventh, and the 2017 Cowboys, who finished eighth, have reached the grand final after qualifying from outside the top four.
If you are new to rugby league or want to join the Warriors bandwagon, take a look at every team’s chances of lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy.
Cowboys forward Jason Taumalolo. Photo / Photosport
Eighth: North Queensland Cowboys
Why they can win: They say to win the NRL, you need experience in the form of State of Origin players, and the Cowboys have an abundance of them from halfback Tom Dearden to captain Reuben Cotter. If you like history, they did make the grand final from eighth back in 2017, without Johnathan Thurston, so maybe the stars are aligning for another run.
Why they can’t win: Other than stating the obvious with their ladder position, the Cowboys have been very inconsistent this year, particularly defensively. They are either really good or really bad and no in between. It was only six weeks ago the Roosters scored a record 82 points on them. No team has won the title in the year they had 50 put on them. On top of that, they have only won three games outside of Queensland this year.
Player to watch: Jason Taumalolo has shown glimpses this year of being back to his destructive best and is providing the Cowboys with plenty of go-forward in the middle. Any chance of winning rests on his shoulders.
Kalyn Ponga. Photo / Photosport
Seventh: Newcastle Knights
Why they can win: As demonstrated during their loss to the Warriors where they played the majority of the game with 12 players, the Knights have the ability to break the game open with ease and attack from distance which makes them as lethal as anybody with the ball.
Why they can’t win: After claiming the wooden spoon last year, the Knights have bounced back impressively this season; however, the injury bug has caught up with them. Without the likes of Dylan Brown, Dylan Lucas, Francis Manuleleua and Jacob Saifiti, who has been suspended for his hit on Warriors winger Luke Laulilii, it’s hard to imagine they keep up with the rest of the pack.
Player to watch: The Knights’ success rests on the shoulders of Kalyn Ponga, who is lethal with ball in hand and he orchestrates lots of the attack. With their decimated forward pack, Trey Mooney will need to shoulder a bigger responsibility.
Jai Arrow leads the Rabbitohs out for their NRL clash with the Gold Coast Titans. Photo / Getty Images
Sixth: South Sydney Rabbitohs
Why they can win: As things stand, the Bunnies pose the biggest threat to the top four teams. They have bobbled their way through the season, battling injuries to several key players, but with most of their stars back and under the tutelage of experienced coach Wayne Bennett, they will be primed to cause an upset or two. They will also be buoyed by the impact of Jai Arrow and his MND diagnosis, which has united the rugby league community.
Why they can’t win: As mentioned above, injuries have made the Bunnies very inconsistent this season and knowing their track record, don’t be surprised if another is struck down. On top of that, if they are to win, they will have to claim some upsets on the road, and their away form has been far from spectacular this year.
Player to watch: Latrell Mitchell is back after a long injury layoff and he will likely be the X-factor needed if Souths are to upset the apple cart. His physical ball running is a nightmare for defences.
The Cronulla Sharks celebrate their win over the Warriors earlier this season in Auckland. Photo / Photosport
Fifth: Cronulla Sharks
Why they can win: The Sharks have a very settled and experienced squad which has been building over the years for this moment. Their window for an NRL premiership is closing so they need to strike now if they are to win their second title.
Why they can’t win: A month ago, the Sharks were the hottest team in the NRL, but after losing five-eighth Braydon Trindall to a dislocated shoulder, they have fallen off a cliff. They head into the finals on the back of back-to-back losses and unless Trindall comes back fit and firing, you can’t imagine them lifting the trophy. But this has been the Sharks for the past four years. They are always there or thereabouts and have failed to take that next step, and that’s something you can’t see them doing.
Player to watch: Addin Fonua-Blake was brought to the club, after leaving the Warriors, to bring mongrel to their forward pack. He needs to raise his game and show why the Sharks invested in him. Otherwise it may look like the Warriors have gotten the better end of the bargain.
Daly Cherry-Evans is aiming to lead the Roosters to their first title since 2019. Photo / Photosport
Fourth: Sydney Roosters
Why they can win: The Roosters are one of the NRL glamour clubs that possess a core full of championship-winning pedigree, led by skipper James Tedesco. They are welcoming back Daniel Tupou and Angus Crichton for the finals which only adds to their depth and experience.
Why they can’t win: Two weeks ago, the Roosters were top of the table and like the Sharks, they have capitulated. They will head in to the finals on the back of a three-game losing streak, including conceding 50 in their most recent match. They have also lost Sam Walker for the season, which is a big blow.
Player to watch: All eyes will be on Daly Cherry-Evans. He was brought to the club to win them the title, similar to the role Cooper Cronk played when they went back-to-back in 2018 and 19, and with no Walker, it will be on his shoulders to lead them to the promised land. For a player that loves a highlight, watch out for Mark Nawaqanitawase. That guy is a freak of nature and will be a big loss for the 13-man code.
Jeremy Marshall-King has been a vital player for the Dolphins. Photo / Photosport
Third: Dolphins
Why they can win: The Dolphins possess one of the best sides on paper, with fast and powerful backs like Herbie Farnworth and Selwyn Cobbo, with small, hard-working forwards like Max Plath and Kurt Donoghoe. Overall, they are just a joy to watch when in sync and have consistently gone toe-to-toe with the best teams all season.
Why they can’t win: The Dolphins are the youngest club in the NRL and this is their first trip to the finals. While everyone knows they have the squad which can compete, do they have the ability to perform when the spotlight is shining its brightest? They have also had their defensive lapses this season, and have also conceded more than 50 points twice this season, which effectively does rule them out.
Player to watch: While their captain Isaiya Katoa is the obvious answer, I can’t look past the influence Jeremy Marshall-King has had on the team since returning from injury. The Dolphins were very inconsistent in the opening rounds of the season, but since the return of the Kiwis hooker, they’ve been more controlled in attack, while their speed at the ruck has also been strong.
Will the Warriors perform another haka during the NRL finals? Photo / Photosport
Second: New Zealand Warriors
Why they can win: The Warriors have had to overcome more adversity than any other team this season with one of the worst injury tolls, but unlike past campaigns, they have managed to overcome those hurdles. But what makes the Warriors genuine threats is their style of play, which has scored more points than anybody this season, while having one of the highest completion percentages and lowest error rates.
Why they can’t win: The biggest concern, as seen in recent weeks, has been their edge defence. Opposition teams have had a field day targeting the Warriors in parts of the field and there is a chance the better teams will be more clinical in making them pay. They also lack players with experience in the later stages of the season so it will be interesting to see how they handle that pressure. They also lack that game-breaking player, like a Cleary, Farmworth or Mitchellm, for example.
Player to watch: James Fisher-Harris for his leadership and understanding of what it takes to be a champion is the clear answer, but in terms of on the field, Wayde Egan and Erin Clark are vital to their success. Egan’s decision-making and ability to create from dummy half has been key to their success while Clark’s ability to run or pass, particularly close to the line, is a key cog in the Warriors’ attack.
Ivan and Nathan Cleary are chasing a fifth NRL premiership in six years. Photo / Photosport
First: Penrith Panthers
Why they can win: Because they are the Panthers who have set the benchmark for the NRL across this decade. They have shown ability to win games from impossible positions and they are welcoming back key duo Isaah Yeo and Mitch Kenny for the finals. This is their second to last season as a team, before the likes of Ivan Cleary and Brian To’o depart, there is no doubt they will want to further cement their legacy as the greatest team ever.
Why they can’t win: It is very hard to find many flaws in their game, but they have had a tough run home which has featured many games of a finals intensity. Will they be able to maintain that for another month? One area teams will target is their left edge which has been changing continually in recent weeks.
Player to watch: The Panthers’ success will hinge on Nathan Cleary. We have seen many times in the big moments in the NRL, the halfback has stood up and got his side back in the match or led them to an unlikely win.
Ben Francis is an Auckland-based reporter for the New Zealand Herald who covers breaking sports news.