Election 2026: Political polarisation on energy and climate, except solar

Summary

The past three years have seen unprecedented attacks on environmental policy, which includes the Government’s approach to energy and climate. This election the major choice facing voters is either more of the same, with subsidies and fast track approvals that virtually guarantee continued climate chaos on the right, or a return to well-meaning but mostly insufficiently ambitious energy and climate policies on the left. 

We asked the major seven political parties about their approach to energy and climate issues as they relate to public health; from e-bikes to the Paris Agreement to domestic mitigation. Several parties had not yet released full energy and climate policies but at least responded to our request for information. Disappointingly, the ACT and National parties did not to respond and instead have been assessed based on their recent policy decisions and public statements.

Troublingly, party policies demonstrate political polarisation on energy and climate and a failure from many parties to meaningfully respond to climate change. However, support for increasing the uptake of solar is shared across the political spectrum.

Moving to a low carbon energy system is a critical transformation for Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), not least of all to protect and improve public health. Energy use is responsible for 38% of national greenhouse gas emissions in the most recent accounting, of which about half is from transport, and another 16% from electricity generation.1

It is well understood how to move to a low carbon energy system.2 However, the way we move to a low carbon system is important for health and wellbeing. There are a range of policy options, and different approaches will have varying impacts on social, economic and other outcomes. For example, different approaches to low carbon transport will have diverse impacts on how, and how much, we travel, our health, how much money the health system spends, and how fair our society is.3,4

We asked political parties to describe their policies for NZ energy systems and climate mitigation, with two short yes/no questions on e-bikes and climate diplomacy, and one open-ended question for them to describe their approach and any other specific policies (Box 1). Te Pāti Māori (TPM), New Zealand Labour Party (Labour), the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand (Greens) and New Zealand First (NZF) responded to our questions (their full responses are provided in the Appendix). Despite being in contact with their offices, the ACT Party (ACT) and New Zealand National Party (National) declined to respond to the survey. For these parties, we have based our analysis on their recent policy decisions and publicly available information. 

Box 1: Questions put to political parties on energy system and climate mitigation as part of the Public Health Communication Centre’s Election 2026 survey

Will your party provide subsidies for e-bikes to low-income households or other targeted e-bike programmes to reduce emissions, national dependence on oil, reduce household costs and improve public health?Does your party commit to keeping NZ in the Paris Agreement?Please expand on any other policies your party may have to make our energy systems more resilient and use it to improve our health by reducing its greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution (eg, increasing public and active transport (walking and cycling), raising electric vehicle uptake, supporting industry to transition to renewable energy, increasing use of solar panels, reducing fossil fuel sources of energy such as coal and LNG).Solar: This election’s must-have policy

Thanks to energetic and effective lobbying by a range of organisations and skyrocketing energy prices, part of an ongoing cost-of-living crisis, most parties now have a policy around rooftop or household solar. 

National, Labour, Opportunity, and the Greens all have supportive solar policies.  The policies are all broadly financial, involving a range of loans and/or subsidies, which would reduce the upfront cost of installing rooftop solar with or without batteries.  The policies differ somewhat by how much they are targeted eg, low-income households (Labour) and public housing (Greens) vs any households (National). 

TPM and NZF did not provide specific policies at this stage but are generally supportive. ACT does not yet have an energy policy, but David Seymour’s recent speech suggests support would be related to changing rules rather than subsidies. 

Solar is a great example of a policy that will achieve multiple aims: reducing the cost of energy (albeit this will vary depending on approach and benefits may not be shared equitably) and further decarbonising the energy system. 

Specific policy levers would need to be included to incentivise landlords to put in solar on rental properties to avoid renters being stuck with higher energy bills.

E-bike policy: a missed opportunity 

Like solar power, e-bikes have upfront costs that most people find prohibitive (more detail in Appendix).  However, e-biking for transport reduces greenhouse gas emissions5 and has many other benefits for the communities and the country. These include reducing transport costs6,7 reducing healthcare demand through improved physical and mental health,8 improving local environments, reducing local crime and reducing congestion.9 For example, the cost of diabetes medication and the number of admissions to hospitals of people with diabetes could be reduced by targeted e-bike policy for people with pre-existing diabetes.10 Like solar, e-bikes are not the silver bullet, but an important component of a move to a low carbon energy system.

The Greens were the only party to provide a specific policy on e-bikes, although TPM, Opportunity and Labour indicated they are supportive, while NZF stated general support for active transport (Table 1). The position of National and ACT is not clear, but likely not supportive, given the defunding of active transport in the last three years. 

Paris Agreement: ACT and NZF would make NZ an international outlier

National, TPM, Opportunity, Labour and Greens are committed to staying in the Paris Agreement (more on the Agreement in the Appendix). ACT and NZF would withdraw from it. Should this happen, NZ would be an international outlier, with Iran, Libya and Yemen the only countries not to have ratified the Agreement and USA withdrawing. ACT would get rid of the Net Zero Act and climate policy infrastructure such as the Climate Change Commission and “benchmark New Zealand’s emissions cap against major trading partners”. NZF has said they will withdraw from Paris and recommence gas and oil exploration and mining domestically which they claim, without evidence, will ensure “economic sovereignty and security”. 

For the parties that would remain in Paris, to date, apart from the Greens, few of them have outlined comprehensive plans that would allow us to achieve its goals. Labour has committed to reviewing the ETS to make it more effective but has notably stepped away from pricing agricultural emissions (agriculture accounts for about half of NZ greenhouse emissions). 

National has defenestrated all effective climate policy in the last three years, at least in part due to pressure from their coalition partners. ACT and National did not respond to our request for their policies, probably because they estimated it was politically expedient to stay silent. Their policies are strongly aligned with fossil fuel and dairy industry interests. Their stated intention to sign contracts for a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import terminal before the election is particularly divisive. The OECD and the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment have concluded that importing LNG is an expensive answer to a problem which is better solved by planned renewable energy generation.11 

Table 1: Summary of Labour, Opportunity, Te Pāti Māori, Greens, NZ First responses. Full responses in Appendix

PartySubsidies for e-bikes to low-income households or other targeted e-bike programmes?Keep NZ in the Paris Agreement?Other energy and/or climate mitigation policies?New Zealand Labour PartySupportive of e-bikes but no policy provided.Yes

“Provide Government-backed, long-term, low-interest finance for household solar and batteries, and $3,000 subsidies for low- and middle-income households.”

$30 million community battery fund.

Cap public transport fares at $20 in Akl, Wtgn and ChCh and at $10 everywhere else in NZ. 

Indicated more policies to be announced. 

The Opportunity PartyNo, “open to exploring it.” YesPolicies intending to “encourage EV uptake, support installation of rooftop solar and community-scale generation and storage, and electrify public transport and private vehicles.”Te Pāti MāoriSupportive but no clear policy provided; indicated further announcements to be made.YesStated that “Energy sovereignty is a key pillar” of their campaign and indicated further announcements to be made.Green Party of Aotearoa New ZealandYes, “would introduce targeted subsidies for e-bikes and introduce e-bike sharing schemes in community hubs.”Yes

Build mass rapid transit in Akl, Wtgn, and ChCh. Fund interregional rural bus services.

More bike lanes, safe crossings, and lowering speed limits near schools.

Phase-out date for the import of fossil-fuel powered vehicles.

Build more EV charging stations, remove regulatory barriers to EV car-sharing and reintroduce incentives for EV uptake.

Interest-free loans for home solar panels; “scale up” solar for public and Māori housing, including 40,000 public homes.

Establish Kiwipower “to address gaps in renewable firming generation.”

New Zealand First

No

Support of active transport, but no specific policies.

No

Priority of “Funding regional and national transport infrastructure, maintaining our roading networks, and improving heavy rail.”

Supports “Breaking up vertically integrated gentailer electricity companies to strengthen competition and reduce power prices,” and “increasing NZ ownership and control over key energy infrastructure”.

Indicates support for “industry to adopt renewables where feasible” and “greater use of solar and distributed generation, and improving public and active transport, especially in regional centres so people have realistic alternatives to private car use.”

Conclusion

Through this survey, it is not possible to model the emissions impacts of all party policies. However, we can see the big picture approaches from parties, which give us an indication of how far and in what direction parties are proposing to take NZ. 

While there is broad agreement that more solar generation is needed, parties’ approaches to energy and climate mitigation do indicate an increasing polarisation on these issues. On the right, National, ACT and NZ First are campaigning on commitments to facilitating more generation of fossil fuels, including coal mining. Along with parties on the left, NZ First and Opportunity share a desire to improve public and active transport, which is positive. However, there appears to be little political will to address agricultural emissions and, despite public statements on climate change, few have comprehensive plans to dramatically reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.

What this Briefing addsE-bikes: Only the Greens have policies to support e-bike uptake. Labour and TPM are “supportive”; NZF is supportive of active transport; Opportunity is open to discussion. Paris Agreement: ACT and NZF would leave the Paris Agreement, making NZ an international outlier.No party has outlined comprehensive policies that would enable Paris goals to be met; although the Greens have the most comprehensive policy. NZF, ACT and National favour continued investment in fossil fuel infrastructure and, in the last three years, have removed most effective climate policies. Implications for policy and practiceEnergy affordability is a key issue in the upcoming election. Several parties have announced policies to support renewable energy uptake with loans and/or changes to legislation.The coalition Government has a poor record on climate policy over the current term. ACT and NZF would undermine domestic and international efforts to bring climate chaos back under control.All other parties would remain in the Paris Agreement, but there is insufficient detail to show how the Paris goals could be met.Authors’ details 

Prof Simon Hales, Co-director, Public Health Communication Centre, and Department of Public Health, Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka, Pōneke | University of Otago, Wellington

Assoc Prof Caroline Shaw, Department of Public Health, Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka, Pōneke | University of Otago, Wellington

Appendix 1Solar and E-bikes upfront costs

For households the upfront costs of a solar system will range from $8,500 to $40,000 depending on the size of their household and whether the system includes batteries. Payback time is around 7-10 years for a basic system; longer with batteries. 

A midrange e-cargo bike for a household that carries multiple children and cargo will cost around $7,000-10,000 (some models are more expensive and some less). No calculations of payback time for an e-bike were available from the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA).

Paris Agreement

As part of the Agreement, NZ has committed to actions that hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C; to achieve a climate-neutral world by mid-century and requires countries to submit updated national climate plans—known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—every five years to increase ambition.