Six months after semaglutide lost patent protection in India, generic brands account for about 74 per cent of the molecule’s monthly volumes, as lower-priced products expand access even as the initial surge in demand begins to settle.
Data from Pharmarack’s PharmaTrac show total semaglutide volumes across injectable and oral formulations rising from 114,000 units in February to about 434,000 units in September. Value over the same period increased from Rs 48 crore to Rs 113 crore, indicating that volumes have grown substantially faster than value as patients shift towards cheaper generic products.
Monthly semaglutide sales rose about 175 per cent from March to September, driven by a sharp increase in prescriptions after lower-priced generic versions made treatment more affordable and accessible.
The sharpest expansion came in April, the first full month after the March 20 patent expiry, when monthly volumes jumped 88 per cent, following a 38 per cent increase in March. Growth subsequently moderated to 12 per cent in May and 4 per cent in June, before rising 18 per cent in July. Volumes were broadly flat in August and rose 7 per cent in September.
Pharmarack has described the semaglutide market as “plateauing” and now growing at a steady trend, suggesting that the initial generic-led expansion is giving way to a more mature phase of growth.
Doctors see the rush cooling
Doctors are seeing a similar shift, reporting greater prescription of semaglutide as affordability improves, but a cooling of the initial rush around the drug.
Aparna Govil Bhasker, consultant bariatric and laparoscopic surgeon at Saifee Hospitals, Mumbai, said she has seen a definite rise in prescriptions since Indian versions entered the market. The lower prices of domestic products have made treatment accessible to a larger number of patients, she said.
“The Indian drugs have really made a lot of difference to a lot of people because they are very affordable,” Bhasker said.
The increase is visible among patients using semaglutide for both diabetes and obesity, she said. Patients generally do not approach doctors asking for a particular company’s product, but seek a treatment option and make a choice based on factors including affordability and individual preference.
At the same time, Bhasker said the initial excitement around the drug has eased. Requests driven purely by cosmetic concerns, including patients wanting to lose weight ahead of weddings and other occasions, have declined, she said. Use is now becoming more “doctor-driven”, with greater awareness that semaglutide is a prescription medicine and can have side effects.
This is broadly consistent with Pharmarack’s assessment that the sharp generic-led expansion is beginning to plateau rather than continuing at the pace seen immediately after patent expiry.
Generics dominate injectables
The shift is particularly pronounced in injectables. Injectable semaglutide volumes rose from 63,000 units in March to 273,000 units in September, including an 11 per cent increase over August. Their value increased from Rs 34 crore in March to Rs 76 crore in August.
Generic injectables accounted for about 230,000 units, or 84 per cent, of September’s injectable volumes, compared with 43,000 units for innovator products.
The faster increase in units than value reflects the impact of lower-priced generics. For the overall molecule, volumes were about 3.8 times February levels by September, while value was about 2.4 times higher.
The post-patent expansion is also changing the composition of the market. Injectable semaglutide volumes have risen consistently since generic entry, while oral semaglutide volumes declined in August before edging up in September.
Pharmarack’s September data show oral semaglutide volumes at about 160,000 units, with innovator oral volumes at 70,000 units.
Bhasker said patients continue to show some resistance to injections and there is a natural preference for tablets, but oral options could become a more important part of the market as newer products become available.
Inventory begins to ease
The changing demand pattern is also visible in inventory levels. Semaglutide inventory stood at 16 days in February, before patent expiry, but increased to 25 days in March and April and peaked at 26 days in May as companies adjusted to the arrival of generic products.
Inventory subsequently declined to 24 days in June, 24 days in July and 23 days in August.
The decline by itself cannot be taken as evidence of stronger demand, since lower stocks can also result from reduced production or dispatches. However, inventory eased even as semaglutide volumes continued to rise through August, suggesting that the market has been absorbing a significant part of the additional supply.
Nirali Shah, research analyst at Ashika Investment Managers, said the initial concern that inventory build-up could be masking underlying demand has now eased.
“The patient who started because their neighbour lost weight is dropping off and what remains is the diabetic, the metabolic disease patient, the person whose doctor made a clinical decision. That is a smaller number today but a far stickier one,” she said.
Shah said the market was now moving from a “buzz phase” to a “prescription habit phase”, a transition typically seen in chronic therapy categories after genericisation.
The trajectory points to a two-stage post-patent market: a sharp expansion immediately after generic entry, followed by slower but continuing volume growth as the market establishes a new base.
For manufacturers, the next phase is likely to be less about the initial rush of generic launches and more about retaining patients, building prescriptions and differentiating products in an increasingly crowded market. Semaglutide market performance since patent expiry FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepTotal units114,000157,000296,000332,000345,000405,000405,000434,000Volume growth, MoM12%38%88%12%4%18%0%7%Total value (Rs crore)4859889392104105113Generics’ share of units0%30%62%67%69%72%72%74%Generics’ share of value0%22%51%53%52%55%55%57%Inventory (days)16252526242423 Source – Pharmarack