Marsden Point forecast adds 1.3b litres of throughput by 2050

Thomas Manch

Senior journalist

26 Oct, 2026 9:45pm2 mins to read

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Marsden Point now anticipates an additional 1.3 billion litres of fuel by 2050.

An updated forecast of fuel throughput at Channel Infrastructure’s Marsden Point now anticipates an additional 1.3 billion litres of fuel by 2050, as a weaker economy slows the uptake of electric vehicles.

Channel Infrastructure published a spreadsheet of petrol, diesel and jet throughput expectations, based on an outlook produced by
energy consultants Envisory, on Tuesday morning.

Channel Infrastructure chief executive Rob Buchanan said total fuel throughput to 2050 was not 1.3 billion litres higher than the advisory firm’s October 2024 forecast.

“Of particular note is that diesel demand is predicted to remain higher over a longer timeframe,” he said.

Compared to the prior outlook, Envisory anticipated that weaker economic conditions would slow vehicle replacement, meaning petrol and diesel demand would remain higher for longer in the coming year.

An additional 300 million litres of petrol and diesel throughput was anticipated in the calendar year 2050, compared to the prior forecast.

By 2060, the total throughput was expected to be about 2% higher than in the October 2024 outlook.

While near-term jet fuel throughput was expected, because of the impact of high fuel prices in 2026, it was anticipated that long-haul travel would continue to grow over time and the long-term trajectory was broadly unchanged.

“The changing geopolitical environment and diesel’s vital role in New Zealand’s economy, particularly in the primary and export sectors, highlight the importance of the Government’s steps this year to establish a nine-day strategic diesel reserve, with tanks available until the storage contract ends in December 2027,” Buchanan said.

“Channel estimates the cost of this economic insurance, including the estimated cost of holding the diesel, is equivalent to around 1 cent per litre for the full nine days of reserve cover secured for New Zealand.”

Channel uses the indicative-only forecast for business planning, alongside its own view of demand and operating conditions.

The company said its 2026 guidance remained unchanged, and its 2% jet fuel volume growth forecast for the 2026 year was “broadly consistent” with Envisory’s near-term outlook.

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